Smurfit Westrock PLC SW is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 1, before market open.

Smurfit Westrock was formed by the merger of two major paper and packaging industry players, Smurfit Kappa and WestRock, on July 5, 2024. The company started reporting results for the combined company from the third quarter of 2024.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SW’s first-quarter revenues is pegged at $7.85 billion, indicating 4.1% growth from the fourth quarter's reported figure. The estimate for earnings per share is pegged at 65 cents, indicating a sequential rise from 34 cents. The consensus mark for earnings has moved 4.8% up in the past 60 days. (Find the latest earnings estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

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Factors Likely to Shape SW’s Q1 Results

The demand for corrugated packaging and containerboard for the packaging of essential items, such as food, beverages and medicines, has been stable. Strong growth in e-commerce and rising demand for paper as a sustainable packaging solution have favored the industry. These trends are expected to get reflected in Smurfit Westrock’s first-quarter 2025 results.

However, some of these gains are likely to have been offset by higher recovered fiber, labor and distribution costs, mainly in Europe. This is expected to have hurt Smurfit Westrock’s margins. The company expects to achieve an adjusted EBITDA of $1.25 billion in the first quarter of 2025.

The merger-related costs are expected to have impacted the company’s first-quarter performance and impacted the free cash flow margin. Pricing actions and cost-saving initiatives are likely to have negated some of these headwinds.

Smurfit Westrock’s Segmental Projection

The company operates under three reportable segments.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Europe, MEA and APAC’s revenues is pegged at $2.61 billion for the first quarter, indicating an increase from the $2.52 billion reported in the fourth quarter of 2024. The segment’s adjusted EBITDA is pegged at $418.6 million. In the fourth quarter, the segment reported $371 million.

The estimates for the North America segment’s first-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $4.54 billion compared with the $4.59 billion reported in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s adjusted EBITDA is pegged at $755.3 million, suggesting a rise from the $710 million reported in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The LATAM segment’s revenue estimate is pegged at $483.6 million, suggesting a sequential dip from $524 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s adjusted EBITDA is $112.3 million, indicating a dip from the $121 million reported in the prior quarter.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for SW

Our model predicts an earnings beat for Smurfit Westrock this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is precisely the case here.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Smurfit Westrock is +3.72%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: SW currently has a Zacks Rank #3.

Smurfit Westrock Stock’s Price Performance

Shares of the company have lost 13.9% in the past six months compared with the industry’s 4.5% fall.

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Other Stocks Poised to Beat Estimates

Here are some other companies with the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. CF, scheduled to release earnings on May 7, has an Earnings ESP of +3.67% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for CF’s earnings for the first quarter of 2025 is pegged at $1.45, indicating year-over-year growth of 38.8%. CF Industries has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 18.1%.

Kinross Gold Corporation KGC, scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on May 6, has an Earnings ESP of +11.07% and a Zacks Rank #3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinross Gold's earnings for the first quarter of 2025 is pegged at 21 cents, indicating an upsurge of 111% from the year-ago quarter’s actual. KGC has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 23.6%.

Methanex Corporation MEOH, scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on April 30, has an Earnings ESP of +4.74% and a Zacks Rank #3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Methanex's earnings for the first quarter of 2025 is pegged at $1.25, indicating a surge of 92.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. MEOH has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 85.2%.

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Smurfit Westrock PLC (SW) : Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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