Lilly Cuts Earnings Guidance on Research Costs, Shares Fall

Bloomberg
05-01

Eli Lilly & Co.’s shares fell 6% early Thursday after the drugmaker cut its full-year earnings outlook citing research costs and CVS Health Corp. announced a deal to make its rival’s weight-loss drug more widely available.

In its first quarter, Lilly’s weight-loss drug performed in line with Wall Street’s expectations, a result that underwhelmed investors who’d been hoping for more explosive growth. Also Thursday, CVS Health Corp. announced it negotiated a deal that makes rival Novo Nordisk A/S’s weight loss drug cheaper for health plans, which has the potential to hurt Lilly’s future sales.

Lilly cut its 2025 adjusted earnings outlook to a range of $20.78 to $22.28 a share, citing ongoing research and development costs. The company had previously forecast $22.50 to $24 a share. Its guidance is based on the current trade environment and doesn’t account for future levies, despite President Donald Trump threatening to impose pharmaceutical-specific tariffs.

“When you’re a premium stock you need to keep beating and raising,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst John Murphy. By “premium stock,” he means it’s been trading on the promise of growth far beyond its rivals. The latest earnings report is “basically dull, which is not what you pay a premium multiple for.”

Lilly did maintain its sales guidance between $58 billion and $61 billion for the year.

Sales in the quarter were $12.73 billion, slightly above the average analyst estimate of $12.67 billion. Adjusted earnings were $3.34 a share, Lilly said Thursday, compared to Wall Street’s estimate of $3.10 a share.

Lilly recorded Zepbound sales of $2.31 billion in the period, in line with analysts’ estimates. Sales of Mounjaro — Lilly’s diabetes drug that contains the same active ingredient as Zepbound — were $3.84 billion in the quarter, narrowly beating estimates of $3.77 billion.

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