Lucid Group (LCID -2.15%) has huge plans in 2025 as it looks to become one of the world's top electric vehicle (EV) companies. If you are an investor interested in this sector of the economy, could buying in before it executes on its goals set you up for life?

If you have a glass-half-full view of the world, you might come away with that impression. But it pays to think about the glass half empty view, too, just in case. Here's what's going on with Lucid as a company and as a stock in 2025.

What does Lucid have on tap in 2025?

Lucid management said it intends to double the company's vehicle production in 2025. It's an ambitious goal, and it will take top-notch execution to achieve. The size of this task shouldn't be underestimated, even after you find out that production in 2024 was roughly 9,000 vehicles. The plan for 2025 is to make around 20,000 vehicles.

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On a percentage basis, the year-over-year production increase in 2025 will be massive. But on an absolute level, the number of cars Lucid will make is still pretty small relative to its EV competitors. For example, Rivian (RIVN 2.71%) made around 50,000 of its EV trucks in 2024 with plans to make around the same number in 2025. Tesla made nearly 1.8 million EVs in 2024. Basically, even if Lucid hits its production target, it will still be a small fry.

It's important to note, meanwhile, that Lucid isn't simply competing against other pure-play EV makers. Virtually all of the major automakers are building EVs today. Ford Motor Company, for example, made 97,000 EVs and 187,000 hybrids in 2024. In other words, there's a very long way to go before Lucid can be considered a serious threat to the rather long list of larger automakers.

20,000 is a step along the way for Lucid

So the glass-half-empty view is that Lucid is still little more than a money-losing upstart. That's not surprising, given the early stage of business development here. In fact, in 2024, the company's loss increased to nearly $3.1 billion versus a loss of $2.8 billion in 2023. Ramping up production will allow it to spread its manufacturing costs over a larger number of vehicles and should help to reduce the red ink. At the very least, it should improve the company's gross margin (which is basically the cost of making the cars without considering other business expenses, like R&D and SG&A).

In fact, for long-term investors who have a glass-half-full view, the production ramp up is just one factor to monitor. The other, and perhaps more important one, will be production costs. The trends are already getting better. In 2023 Lucid spent $1.9 billion to build 8,400 or so EVs. In 2024 it made around 9,000 and the total cost dropped to $1.7 billion.

This is basically the same trajectory that Rivian followed, with the EV truck maker turning a modest gross profit in the fourth quarter of 2024. Of course, Rivian's production was around 5x the production of Lucid in 2024, but that's not really the point. Lucid is building a manufacturing business and it can't just go from 0 to 60 overnight. It has to move incrementally to ensure success.

Lucid is not for the faint of heart

Could Lucid be a millionaire-maker stock? Sure, but it has a lot to prove along the way. And it could still fall short if it can't ramp up production and turn into a sustainably profitable business. In other words, this upstart EV maker is probably only appropriate for aggressive investors.