While American Woodmark Corporation (NASDAQ:AMWD) might not have the largest market cap around , it saw a decent share price growth of 13% on the NASDAQGS over the last few months. While good news for shareholders, the company has traded much higher in the past year. With many analysts covering the stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Today we will analyse the most recent data on American Woodmark’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

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Is American Woodmark Still Cheap?

American Woodmark appears to be overvalued by 40% at the moment, based on our discounted cash flow valuation. The stock is currently priced at US$60.49 on the market compared to our intrinsic value of $43.22. Not the best news for investors looking to buy! If you like the stock, you may want to keep an eye out for a potential price decline in the future. Given that American Woodmark’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

View our latest analysis for American Woodmark

What does the future of American Woodmark look like?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. However, with a negative profit growth of -7.2% expected next year, near-term growth certainly doesn’t appear to be a driver for a buy decision for American Woodmark. This certainty tips the risk-return scale towards higher risk.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? If you believe AMWD is currently trading above its value, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. Given the uncertainty from negative growth in the future, this could be the right time to reduce your total portfolio risk. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on AMWD for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. Its price has risen beyond its true value, on top of a negative future outlook. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management. Should the price fall in the future, will you be well-informed enough to buy?

Since timing is quite important when it comes to individual stock picking, it's worth taking a look at what those latest analysts forecasts are. Luckily, you can check out what analysts are forecasting by clicking here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.