According to the latest data from decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) receiving approval by the end of 2025 has risen to 78%. 

This growing confidence reflects increasing optimism among investors and analysts that a regulatory green light for XRP could arrive before year-end.

Polymarket's chart shows that the implied probability has remained within a stable range of 77% to 79% over the past 24 hours, despite minor intraday fluctuations. This consistent confidence suggests that market participants strongly believe XRP’s ETF approval is on the horizon.

XRP ETF approval gaining momentum

The rising odds are part of a broader 2025 trend in which investor confidence in altcoin-based ETFs has continued to climb. The positive momentum has been fueled by a more favorable regulatory outlook, particularly in relation to Ripple Labs, the company closely associated with XRP.

Although the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has yet to issue an official statement or approval, several indicators suggest movement in that direction. Analysts point to the SEC's acknowledgement of XRP ETF filings and the pro-crypto shift observed within the U.S. Congress as factors boosting optimism.

An XRP spot ETF would provide a regulated avenue for retail and institutional investors to gain exposure to XRP without directly owning the asset, similar to existing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

Such a development would mark a significant milestone for XRP, especially in light of Ripple Labs’ longstanding legal battles with the SEC.

Prediction platforms like Polymarket offer a unique lens into collective market sentiment. Just weeks ago, the approval probability stood at 65%, making the current 78% figure a strong sign of growing momentum.

At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $2.20, reflecting a 1.02% drop over the last 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. Meanwhile, the token’s 24-hour trading volume stands at $2.14 billion, down 7.22% from the previous day.

Additionally, as previously reported by U.Today, a death cross formation on the XRP chart was invalidated, removing a key bearish signal and supporting the narrative of a potential bullish reversal.