Shareholders of Dana Incorporated (NYSE:DAN) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 12% to US$14.59 following its latest quarterly results. Dana beat expectations by 2.1% with revenues of US$2.4b. It also surprised on the earnings front, with an unexpected statutory profit of US$0.17 per share a nice improvement on the losses that the analysts forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Dana after the latest results.

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After the latest results, the consensus from Dana's seven analysts is for revenues of US$9.68b in 2025, which would reflect a small 2.3% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Earnings are expected to improve, with Dana forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.57 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$9.51b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.23 in 2025. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the great increase in earnings per share expectations following these results.

See our latest analysis for Dana

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 6.1% to US$17.43. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Dana analyst has a price target of US$23.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$11.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 3.0% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 7.8% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 9.5% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Dana's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Dana's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Dana's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Dana going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Dana (at least 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.