Buying shares in the best businesses can build meaningful wealth for you and your family. And we've seen some truly amazing gains over the years. Just think about the savvy investors who held Signet Jewelers Limited (NYSE:SIG) shares for the last five years, while they gained 585%. And this is just one example of the epic gains achieved by some long term investors. We note the stock price is up 1.4% in the last seven days. We love happy stories like this one. The company should be really proud of that performance!
So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
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To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Over half a decade, Signet Jewelers managed to grow its earnings per share at 27% a year. We do note that extraordinary items have impacted its earnings history. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 47% per year, over the same period. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Signet Jewelers' earnings, revenue and cash flow.
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Signet Jewelers the TSR over the last 5 years was 620%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
Investors in Signet Jewelers had a tough year, with a total loss of 38% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 11%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 48%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Signet Jewelers better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Signet Jewelers has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of undervalued small cap companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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