Shareholders might have noticed that NOV Inc. (NYSE:NOV) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.7% to US$11.88 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$0.19, some 23% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$2.1b. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, NOV's 19 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$8.66b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to crater 28% to US$1.13 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$8.73b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.35 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.

See our latest analysis for NOV

The average price target fell 6.0% to US$16.55, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values NOV at US$23.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$10.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 2.4% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 7.7% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.3% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - NOV is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for NOV. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple NOV analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for NOV you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.