Roku (ROKU) faces near-term streaming and advertising headwinds, particularly due to exposure to short-term market fluctuations, but is better positioned to adjust ad pricing in dynamic markets with enhanced programmatic capabilities, Oppenheimer reported Friday in a research note.

Most of Roku's ads are sold 30 to 60 days in advance, leaving the company highly exposed to changes in near-term ad demand. While management is not factoring in weaker ad demand, Oppenheimer sees this timing sensitivity as a significant risk in the current uncertain macroeconomic environment.

Despite these challenges, Roku has strengthened its advertising stack through third-party demand-side platform integrations and enhanced first-party programmatic offerings, which provide more flexibility in adapting to market changes.

In Q1, The Roku Channel saw a strong 84% year-over-year increase in hours streamed, significantly outperforming the 17% growth seen across the broader platform. This led the channel to become the No. 2 app by engagement, up from No. 3.

Oppenheimer expects 2025 platform revenue of $3.95 billion, reflecting a 12% year-over-year growth, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $350 million, with gross profit estimates slightly revised lower. For 2026, the firm raised its platform revenue and gross profit forecasts by 1% and increased its EBITDA estimate by 6% on improved margins.

Oppenheimer maintained a perform rating on the stock amid an uncertain macroeconomic landscape.

Shares of Roku were down 6.4% in recent trading.

Price: 62.97, Change: -4.30, Percent Change: -6.39