Participants

Joseph Mondillo; Director - Investor Relations; Aaon Inc

Gary Fields; President, Chief Executive Officer, Director; Aaon Inc

Rebecca Thompson; Chief Financial Officer, Vice President - Finance, Treasurer; Aaon Inc

Matthew Tobolski; President, Chief Operating Officer; Aaon Inc

Julio Romero; Analyst; Sidoti

Ryan Merkel; Analyst; William Blair

Chris Moore; Analyst; CJS Securities

Brent Thielman; Analyst; D.A. Davidson

Timothy Wojs; Analyst; Baird

Presentation

Operator

Good morning ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the AAON Incorporated's first quarter 2025 earnings release conference call. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded on Thursday, May 1, 2025.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Joe Mondillo, director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Joseph Mondillo

Thank you, operator and good morning, everyone. The press release announcing our first quarter financial results was issued earlier this morning and can be found on our corporate website AAON.com. The call today is accompanied with a presentation that you can also find on our website as well as on the listen-only webcast. Please turn to slide 2.
We begin with our customary forward-looking statement policy. During the call, any statement presented dealing with information that is not historical is considered forward-looking and made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of the Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, the Securities Act of 1933, and the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, each as amended.
As such, it is subject to the occurrence of many events outside of AAON's control that could cause AAON's results to differ materially from those anticipated.
You are all aware of the inherent difficulties, risks, and uncertainties in making predictive statements. Our press release in Form 10-Q that we filed this morning details some of the important risk factors that may cause our actual results to differ from those in our predictions.
Please note that we do not have the duty to update our forward-looking statements. Our press release and portion of today's call use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G. You can find the related reconciliations to the GAAP measures in our press release and presentation.
Joining me on today's call is Gary Fields, CEO; Matt Tobolski, President and COO; and Rebecca Thompson, CFO and Treasurer.
Gary will start us off with some opening remarks. Rebecca will follow with a walkthrough of the quarterly results. Matt will then provide further details on our operations and outlook going forward. And before taking questions, Gary will finish with some closing remarks.
With that, I will turn the call over to Gary.

Gary Fields

Starting on slide 3, prior to jumping into the results, I want to start off by reminding you of our core strategic pillars. These pillars consist of leading in innovation and custom solutions, driving sustainable organic growth, and being a best-in-class operator.
These 3 pillars help guide our long-term strategic planning and remind us of what we are trying to accomplish when forming tactical strategies.
All of these pillars did not always exist at AAON. Since our founding, leading and innovation has always been core to who AAON is. Over the past several years, our strategy has built upon this with a focus on developing ways to drive sustainable long-term organic growth and being a best-in-class operator.
All of the tactical initiatives that we've taken, such as transitioning to a leadership team, putting in place succession planning, formally constructing and documenting long-term strategy planning, adopting a one a on principle, and I could go on and on.
All of this was to better leverage our core to drive sustainable and efficient long-term growth. This company has never had a better long-term strategy with a better leadership team to execute it. What we're doing with the development of heat pumps on the AAON side of the business and custom airside and liquid cooling data center solutions on the basic side is very exciting.
The strategies we're taking regarding the other two pillars ensures that we will fully leverage these innovations, along with the already premier solutions we provide to drive market share gains at highly profitable levels.
Now turning to slide 4. The first quarter was a solid quarter for AAON. Net sales, margin, and earnings per share notably improved from the fourth quarter, and backlog grew to a record level.
Total net sales grew year-over-year 22.9%. Sales of Basics branded equipment were up 374.8%. Both airside and liquid cooling solutions for data centers were driving factor.
Partially offsetting this strength, sales of AAON branded equipment were down 19.1%. Production of our rooftop units was impacted by the week bookings we received throughout most of the fourth quarter.
Additionally, supply chain issues with certain components associated with the new R-454B refrigerant were also a factor. On a positive note, bookings of this equipment year-to-date have been strong. We also have begun to see these supply chain issues abate early in the second quarter.
Total gross margin contracted 840 basis points versus the comparable quarter a year ago. This reflected wheat production volume of Aon branded rooftop units and the resulting operating the leverage effect. Gross margin at the AAON Oklahoma segment was down 1,380 basis points.
Strong sales of basics branded equipment along with operational efficiency improvements, drove solid gross margin expansion at the AAON coil products and basic segments.
Gross margin of these two segments were up year-over-year, 10 and 350 basis points respectively.
Total backlog finished the quarter at a record level, $1 billion up year over year, 83.9%. And up quarter-over-quarter 18.4%. First quarter bookings of both AAON branded and basic branded equipment were robust.
Backlog of AAON branded equipment was up quarter over quarter, 23.4%. And this was the highest level since the first quarter of 2023. Bookings of rooftop units were very strong and strengthened throughout the quarter.
Backlog of basics branded equipment was up quarter over quarter 15.4%. Driven by bookings of both airside and liquid cooling. Data center equipment. Given the backlog on both sides of the business, we're positioned well entering the second quarter.
I will now hand it off to Rebecca Thompson, who will walk through the quarterly financials in more depth.

Rebecca Thompson

Thank you, Gary please turn the slide 5. Net sales for the quarter increased 22.9% to $322.1 million, up from $262.1 million in the first quarter of 2024. The year-over-year growth was driven by a 374.8% increase in basics branded equipment sales.
This was reflected in the results of the basics and AAON Coil product segments. Net sales at these two segments were up 138.9% and 287.8% respectively. Sales of AAON branded equipment declined year-over-year 19.1%. This was largely reflected by the AAON Oklahoma segment which realized the decline in net sales of 23%. Production of rooftop units were impacted by weak bookings throughout most of the fourth quarter.
This was related to a temporary lull in demand as the market shifted from the legacy R410A refrigerant to the new R454B refrigerant equipment. Bookings have since rebounded in a strong manner, suggesting that we're becoming more competitive with the new refrigerant equipment.
Also impacting the first quarter was a tight supply of certain components associated with the new refrigerants which temporarily constricted our production rates.
Supply of these new components have recently begun to improve and will enable us to increase production rates significantly in the second quarter.
Moving to slide 6. Gross profit decreased 6.4% to $86.4 million from $92.2 million. As a percentage of sales, gross profit was 26.8% compared to 35.2% in the first quarter of 2024.
Challenges from the industry regulated refrigerant transition and non-residential construction activity significantly affected our largest segment, AAON, Oklahoma, resulting in decreased volumes and lower overhead absorption. Gross margins at this segment were down year-over-year 1,380 basis points to 23.5%. As we begin to see production volumes increase in the second quarter, we fully expect gross margins to recover.
Production volumes of basics branded equipment acted as a partial offset. This allowed gross margin at the basics and AAON Coil product segments to expand. Operational efficiency improvements at both our Oregon and Texas facilities also contributed to improved segment margins.
Please turn to slide 7. Selling general and administrative expenses increased 13.3% to $51.3 million from $45.3 million in the first quarter of 2024. As a percent of sales, SG&A decreased to 15.9% from 17.3%. Depreciation and amortization was up $3 million due to our increased investments in back-office technology.
Offset by a decrease in professional fees of $3.1 million due to various professional regulatory and legal corporate requirements in 2024. SG&A expenses also included a $2.7 million fee due to our real estate broker associated with the December 2024 acquisition of our Memphis, Tennessee plan for a percentage of the incentives awarded to us by various entities.
Moving to slide 8. Diluted earnings per share was $0.35 down 23.9% from a year ago. Excluding the net impact of the $2.7 million real estate broker fee, adjusted earnings were $0.37 down 20% from a year ago.
The decline in earnings fully reflects the lower production volumes and profits of Aeon branded equipment. Our effective tax rate in the quarter was 9.8%. The company's estimated annual effective tax rate, excluding discrete events, is expected to be approximately 25%.
Turning to slide 9. Cash equivalents, and restricted cash balances totaled $2.4 million on March 31st, 2025, and debt at the end of the quarter was $252.4 million.
Our leverage ratio was 0.95. Year-to-date, cash flow use and operations was $9.2 million compared to cash flows provided by operations of $92.4 million in the comparable period a year ago. Here today, cash flow from operations largely reflected increased investments in working capital. Capital expenditures through the first quarter of the year, including expenditures related to software development, increased 30.2% to $50.4 million.
We drew down $97.5 million on our revolving line of credit over this period, largely to finance the investments in working capital expenditures, and $30 million of open market stock buybacks. Overall, our financial position remains strong. This gives us flexibility and allows us to continue to fully focus on investments that will drive growth and generate attractive returns. For 2025, we continue to anticipate capital expenditures will be $220 million.
I will now turn the call over to Matt who will walk through operations in more detail and update you on our Outlook.

Matthew Tobolski

Thank you, Rebecca. Starting on slide 10, Gary and Rebecca covered this pretty well, but here you will see how AAON branded sales performed relative to basic branded sales. Total revenue growth of 22.9% was fully driven by basic branded equipment sales growing 374.8%.
This was driven by data center demand for both airside cooling equipment manufactured at the Basic segment. In liquid cooling equipment manufactured in the newly expanded space at the Aon coil products segment.
Basic segment sales were up 138.9% and AAON Coil product sales were up 287.8%. This helped drive an expansion in segment gross margin of 350 basis points to 24% at Bass and 100 basis points to 34.6% at AAON Coil products.
At both segments, we also began to benefit from the initiatives we're taking to improve operational efficiencies, particularly at the basic segment where we're right size and capacity at the Oregon facility and focusing more on productivity of the facility. We expect to see more improvement at the basic segment throughout the year, especially in the second half of the year.
Aon branded sales were down 19.1%, driven by rooftop production volumes being down at the AAON Oklahoma segment. And Oklahoma segment sales were down 23%. This was largely reflective of the week bookings we realized throughout most of the fourth quarter.
Supply chain issues with components associated with the new refrigerant also contributed to lower production volumes. This was a temporary issue related to refrigerant transition that was a challenging to manage occurrence and difficult to anticipate.
As the market transitioned to production of the new refrigerant equipment, component manufacturers were challenged with keeping up with demand. In hindsight, we would have increased inventory levels for some of these components, but it was tough to predict at the time.
As a result, a lack of access to certain parts causes us to maintain lower production levels despite a large backlog of bookings. The positive is that we're beginning to see improvement in the supply chain, which is allowing us to increase production rates in the second quarter. Given the size of the backlog, we anticipate production will continue to increase over the next several months.
Please turn to slide 11. Total backlog at the end of the first quarter finished at a record level of $1 billion. That was up year-over-year 83.9%, and up quarter-over-quarter 18.4%. The backlog of AAON branded equipment was $404 million up year over year 44.9%, and up quarter over quarter 23.4%.
This backlog is the highest level since the first quarter of 2023. Since the beginning of the year, bookings at this side of the business have been strong. We received a lot of positive commentary from our sales channel, and we believe our competitiveness with the new refrigerant equipment has never been better.
We're still trying to get an idea on exactly where our price premium lies, but it seems that we have narrowed a little. Also helping drive the backlog, we continue to realize strong demand of our heat pump configured rooftop units, otherwise known as Alpha Class. In April, we started to introduce our next generation of the Alpha Class series, which is operable down to 20 degrees Fahrenheit.
By the end of this year, our entire product portfolio of rooftop units will be configurable with this low temperature configurability. Leading the DOE's commercial heat pump challenge two years in advance of the set 2027 goal.
The strong backlog on this side of the business positions us well entering the 2nd quarter. Our goal is to drive a lot more volume to the Tulsa facility, and as we do this, you'll see margins at the Aon Oklahoma segment begin to recover.
With the supply team issues baiting, and given the size of the backlog, we should begin to see production and profitability improve in the second quarter and continue through the third quarter. The fourth quarter will depend on the bookings we receive over the next few months.
The macroeconomic environment remains in pretty poor shape, which is creating a lot of uncertainty on the back half of the year. For now though, we are taking market share. Despite the macro uncertainties, the sentiment across our sales channel is relatively upbeat.
We're also making headway with our national account strategy and are optimistic we will see meaningful impact, especially with our industry leading alpha class air source heat pumps. These national accounts are large in volume and are multi-year replacement programs, and if we're successful, it will be material to growth.
Backlog of basics branded equipment was $623 million up year over year 122.7%, and up quarter over quarter, 15.4%. Bookings of both airside and liquid cooling equipment for data centers have been strong year-to-date. This puts us in a great position for the rest of the year and provides much more visibility and certainty of sustainable growth in 2026.
With such a large backlog in hand, we can manage production more efficiently, which you will see in the margins of the AAON Coil products in basic segments. We continue to anticipate margin improvement, most notably in the basic segment, as we progress throughout the year, particularly in the second half.
Our capacity expansion plans continue to progress well. Production of our liquid cooling data center equipment at the AAON Coil products segment has been ramping well. In the new space, we currently have 3 production lines in place with plans to increase that to 5 later this year.
At Basics, we are making great progress with the right size and capacity. We've already begun to see these operational improvements in the margin, and you should expect to see more improvement in the second half of the year.
The expansion in Memphis is also progressing. We've started to assemble equipment there at a small scale. Now it won't be as efficient as our other facilities until we get the vertically integrated production set up, but it is helping us achieve our on-time delivery commitments and goals.
We expect meaningful production to begin in the fourth quarter of this year with a sharper ramp up of volumes throughout 2026. Until we get this production in place, we continue to expect the facility will incur about $5 million to $7 million of cost with minimal revenue to offset.
In the first quarter, these costs amounted to approximately $2.8 million. In addition, we realized a $2.7 million dollar fee associated with various incentives relating to Memphis.
Now please turn to slide 12. We maintain our full year outlook. We anticipate full year sales growth to be in the mid to high 10s at a gross margin similar to what we realized in 2024.
SG&A as a percent of sales will realize the decline of 25 to 50 basis points, and CapEx will be approximately $220 million. For the second quarter. We look for sales and earnings to be up modestly from the first quarter.
Note that the tax rate was unusually low in Q1 and that our interest expense in Q2 will be up with a higher debt balance. The implication is that operating income will be up quarter over quarter more than just modestly as indicated in the earnings guide.
Finally, inclusive of the updated annual outlook is our tariff mitigation surcharge of 6%, which recently went into effect. The outlook assumes the surcharge will be in effect throughout the remainder of the year. Of course, trade policy is very fluid.
At any moment, depending on how policy evolves, we could increase or decrease the surcharge. We anticipate the surcharge will fully neutralize the impact of tariffs on our costs and margins. Lastly, I would like to highlight that we are hosting an investor day on June 10, in New York City. Please find additional information on our corporate website under the investor section, and I hope to see some of you there.
Now with that, I will hand the call back to Gary for closing remarks.

Gary Fields

With this being my last earnings conference call, I wanted to close by thanking all of our stakeholders, to our stockholders, our employees, sales channel partners, customers, and vendors. Thank you. I also would like to thank our founder Norma Bjornsen for giving me this opportunity.
It has truly been a pleasure and honor managing this company for nearly 10 years. A lot of changes taking place over the last decade, and I can confidently say the company is in a much better state than when I arrived. I always said one of my principal goals since day one was to work myself out of a job.
I've done that the day has come. The management team of this company under Matt's leadership has never been better. The growth prospects are better than ever.
With that, thank you again, and I will now open the call for Q&A.

Question and Answer Session

Operator

(Operator Instructions)
Julio Romero from Sidoti.

Julio Romero

Great, good morning, Gary, Rebecca, Matt and Joe, wanted to start off, congratulations again, Gary, for all your work over the years thank you.
Maybe to start on, what you're seeing on K-12 public bid data, what does that data tell you in terms of, where the industry is in terms of pricing of equipment and where AAON's pricing delta, currently stands relative to the competition.

Gary Fields

Well, we just had a national sales meeting a week or so ago and Matt presided over that. I'm going to ask him to respond to that one for us.

Matthew Tobolski

Yeah, of course, and we look at the kind of feedback we're getting from the sales channel partners and really from the bid activity and all indicators definitely say the AAON on price premium is definitely contracted, which is a positive that we're seeing from a competitive competitiveness standpoint, certainly hasn't gotten to parity, but definitely is showing, a percent or two of closure in that price premium. Which is allowing us to continue taking market share and really makes it a lot easier to be able to sell that value proposition that the AAON product offers.

Julio Romero

Got it that's very helpful and then can you give us a sense of where your market share stands today with regards to national accounts and where you think you can take that over time by leveraging your heat pump technology.

Matthew Tobolski

Yeah, national accounts as they stand today, I mean there's definitely a good amount of national accounts within the AAON portfolio. But a lot of the ones that exist today in our books are I'll say kind of smaller scale national accounts and so when we look at, the overall market share in national accounts it's certainly low as it stands today inside the AAON portfolio.
What I would say though is the acceleration that we have seen with intentional effort and really positioning the product is showing a very noticeable acceleration of national account activity around the AAON brand and really when you look at the kind of trajectory that we see in the national account segment, it will make a meaningful impact to the AAON brand. I mean we're seeing a tremendous amount of activity, a lot of adoption and understanding of the value proposition.
And with the Alpha Class product and really being able to offer an incredibly flexible heat pump solution that really offers a great option, not just in cold climates but also in warmer climates.
We have a portfolio that can really check the boxes for the entire industry and for the entire national account across countries, across the country and so we're seeing a tremendous amount of involvement there. The activity that our national sales team and partnership with our sales channel is engaging in right now is tremendous, and so we see that being a meaningful impact, for AAON kind of on a go forward basis.
The one thing I always want to point out though is national accounts do not just, transition overnight. I mean it's a process because of the scale of these accounts, the sales cycle tends to be a little bit longer than let's say a traditional K-12 type project.
And so there's a lot more conversation around the value proposition. There's a lot more positioning of the product, because we're setting up multi-year programs, not just a single project. And so why I say that is, we're going to see these materializing in '25.
We'll start seeing more and more national accounts materialize, but definitely with the trajectory, I think, it's going to be later 25 you'll start seeing the acceleration, but '26 is really the year that a lot of today's work is going to convert to revenue.
But when we look at that alpha class solution and really what we just announced at our national sales meeting a couple of weeks ago, being able to have a heat pump solution that can operate all the way down to 20 degrees is a tremendous, option to be able to present to our customers the national accounts where we can handle those coldest climates.
We call that the extreme serious for us for the negative 20 operating conditions. We're able to really capture a tremendous amount of those northern states in a in a true heat up operation mode, but we also have what we branded the Eco and the Pro series which provide flexibility and more cost effective solutions as you kind of move to the southern states.
And so that portfolio of alpha class products from the extreme cold temperatures to the warmer climates is really an all-encompassing product portfolio that is really resonating with our national account customers.

Julio Romero

Very helpful, thanks again.

Operator

Your next question is from the right line of Ryan Merkel from William Blair. Please go ahead.

Ryan Merkel

Hey everyone, good morning. Nice quarter and let me also say congrats, Gary, it's been great working with you. Wish you best of luck.
Thank you much.
So my first question is just on the core rooftop business. You guys talked about strengthening orders through the quarter. Can you just talk about a couple of things, the pushouts that you saw last quarter, did those come back as you expected? Do you think you're taking market share just given where you're priced? And then I'm a little curious if you saw kind of a pop in March ahead of that surcharge that you put it in April.

Matthew Tobolski

Yeah, so that, yeah, so as it relates to the pushouts and definitely there was, there's volatility in Q4 and bookings and really a lot of that was just on the adoption cycle with that new refrigerant. We talked very openly on that Q4 call that while the, first couple of months of Q4 were soft, we definitely saw that, reinvigoration in December, and we continued seeing strength and bookings throughout Q1.
And so, what that's telling us is that sort of softness and those pushouts that we saw in Q4 are largely behind us from an overall kind of impact from the refrigeration transition. And really see that non materializing in the consistent order cadence that we're seeing and that we would expect in this kind of normal normal seasonal booking cadence.
Your question definitely, I mean, yeah, obviously, you put a 6% surcharge and there's going to be a lot of conversation and activity, trying to get ahead of that, but Ryan, one thing we're very intentional on was not allowing this to be an open ended, bring all your orders in and slam us before that that surcharge comes in. We were very open with our sales channel that we had capped the amount of orders that we would accept with that without a surcharge in place.
Really based on financial modeling and inventory levels that we had for the vast majority of components. And so while there was definitely a lot of activity ahead of that surcharge in March, there would have been a lot more if we didn't put a cap on that.
And so we cap that and said this is the amount of orders we're willing to accept prior to implementing a surcharge. And why it's important is as we came on the back end of that surcharge, I mean, obviously the day after the surcharge went in effect there was certainly a dip relative to the day before, but if you look at the overall orders cadence that's come on the backside of that surcharge being put in place, we continue seeing.
The traditional strengthening of orders that we would normally see within the Q2 booking statements. So, while there was a little bit of pull forward, we didn't allow that to be overwhelming to the overall operation, and we're definitely seeing a traditional bookings cadence in the last 45 days on the heels of that. On the heels of that surcharge being put in effect.
And so we definitely, see this normalizing and really what it's telling us as well is relative to some of our peers we're definitely seeing, I'll say stronger bookings, which really tells us number one, our price competitive definite our price positioning is definitely more competitive than it's historically been and also it's telling us that we are definitely getting market share.

Ryan Merkel

Got it. Okay, that's encouraging and that was the answer I was looking for actually. So thanks for that. And then I'd like to put a finer point on the 2 guide. The street is about $0.60. You just did adjusted $0.37 and you're talking about up modestly.
Can you just help us with that, and help us think through sales and margins. I'm just wondering if there's a potentially bigger margin impact than 2 because of the Memphis facility that maybe we don't appreciate, but just any help there would be great.

Matthew Tobolski

Yeah, so I want to start off by reaffirming the overall full year guide and just kind of why I want to start there is the saying, there's definitely a strong growth year and a strong performance here that you're going to see in 2025 out of.
Q2 we're coming on the heels of Q1 that was impacting the Oklahoma segment with some supply chain constraints. And so, as we said in the prepared commentary, yes, supply chain impacts are abating, but if you kind of think for a second coming out of April into April, I should say, those were still lingering as we entered April.
And so what that does is it starts us off a little bit slow in April and slower than we want to be relative to the backlog we have and the overall demand for the product. So that's not giving us that immediate pop that we'd want to see inside of the Oklahoma segment as we basically ramp up production as supply chain kind of gets to a more normalized cadence. So that is, a little bit of an impact that that is built into that guide.
As you also think about the basics and the ACP segments, Q1 was a very strong quarter in in Q1, definitely we have some good uptick in productivity, especially inside that coil product segment.
But there's also traditionally a little bit of lumpiness just on kind of how orders flow through and just based on delivery schedules of these larger orders that kind of are associated with these data center projects. So why I say that is I don't want to set an expectation for Q2 to build upon Q1. There's a little bit of noise and you might see just a slight kind of pullback in overall sales inside the ACP basic segments just coming off the heel of such a strong Q1.
So that's sort of built into that guide. But the one part I want to also touch on is the overall operating income is going to be up far more than modestly, which is to your the root of your comment showing you strengthening in sales out of Oklahoma, and with that you're going to see good marginal recovery out of the Oklahoma segment in Q2.
But as we kind of peel that back, Q1 had a very beneficial tax rate that we don't anticipate in Q2. And so from a bottom line flush out, you can definitely see a tax rate impact in Q2 you didn't have in Q1, and you're also going to have growing interest expense as we've invested in working capital with the production rates ramping up in both coil products and basics and so.
If you look at the operating income perspective, you would see a great uptick in Q2, and that's just being hampered a little bit by that tax rate differential and the interest rate that's kind of what's flushing that modest guide, from an UPS perspective.

Ryan Merkel

Okay, that's really helpful. I'll pass it on. Thanks so much.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Chris Moore from CJS Securities. Your line is now open.

Chris Moore

Hey, good morning guys, thanks for taking a couple and also congrats Gary, thanks for everything.
Thank you.
Sure, in terms of, you still hear some big players canceling or downsizing, data center construction. Just wanted to kind of go a little deeper in terms of what you're hearing from your from your customers how much visibility do they give you in terms of their plans over the next three to five years?

Matthew Tobolski

Yeah, there's tremendous visibility from a pipeline perspective that we see with our customers and large data center operators that we work with we're typically getting, every month, every two months we're getting an updated pipeline, that is provided to us and so that's giving us anywhere from a three to a seven year kind of outlook on what these big players have in their projections.
Is there noise in the data center industry right now? Sure, there's a lot of conversation around cancellations and pushouts, but what I would say is the pipeline that we see has never been stronger. The orders book that we see has never been stronger.
And while there might be some near term noise, it's still on a growing base. And so, we're seeing this continuous strength and we're seeing the inquiries, the pipeline visibility, we're seeing all of that in a very strong condition seeing it strengthening.
There's definitely some near-term conversations which, frankly, Chris, I think it's actually a good thing if you think about this systematically. I mean, if we sort of have a more normalized but aggressive growth rate as an industry, not relative to Aon but as an industry that's far easier to manage and so. We see this continued long term strengthening cycle. We see tremendously good visibility in the 2026, that's providing us confidence in that sort of next year performance continuing to build off a strong 25.
And so yes there's noise in the industry, but I would just, reaffirm that the visibility of the pipeline has never been stronger the order activity within the basic segment has never been stronger and the activity with our customers engaging with those customers has never been better perfect.

Chris Moore

The 200 million plus liquid cooling order was I know it had gotten pushed a little bit. It was any of that or much of that in one.

Matthew Tobolski

So of that order, if we look at the $200 million dollar order that we talked about last year, so far we've recognized about $80 million or so of that revenue and so that's the sort of ramp up, started that started off in Q4 of last year started certainly had a very strong ramp in Q1 as we really, work to get a baseline of inventory and really build up that product.
That project, we talked about on the Q4 call originally we had said, hey, we anticipated that mostly converting, the first half of the year with some spillover into Q3, I would just say that that's the overall cycle, or that project, has say spread a little bit and so really from our anticipation, we recognized $80 million of that $200 million to date.
We anticipate the rest of that's really spread out over the rest of this calendar year, and it's kind of what we see but we have additional follow on orders with that customer, we have a tremendous amount of visibility into that 2026 and 2027 pipeline with that customer and so you know we're continuing to show that it's an accelerating demand with that customer.
It's just the initial build out and really the ramp up rate of that investment. It's just just taking a little bit longer to kind of materialize, not from a demand from their customers perspective but just all the construction activities associated with building these new AI data centers. It's just lengthen that cycle with that order just a little bit.

Chris Moore

Got it. I appreciate that. I'll jump back in line. Thanks man.

Matthew Tobolski

Yeah of course.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Brent Thielman from D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead.

Brent Thielman

Hey, great, thanks Gary relay all the same it's been a pleasure, I guess first question just on the rooftop business and of the supply chain issues you've felt here in the quarter and it sounds like you continue to feel to some degree. Are you at the point where there's some confidence, these issues or.
Are going to be behind you as you go into the second half of the year and I guess just with that I was curious it didn't really seem like that impact that impacted the basics branded product I'm just wondering if that could still come or you see it as a non-issue there.

Matthew Tobolski

Yeah, so where the confidence comes from and really I'll say Brent the.
You know where we sit today, the acceleration of resolution that we're seeing in the supply chain with these new refrigerant components, I mean, it's all trending very positive, it's really, as a whole industry transition with that sort of hard stop on January 1, to go from R-410A to R-454B.
It was just a lot of I'll say strains on the overall supply chain just in support of those new components because you're basically having to support the 40A products that were being built and flushed out through 2024 with also the impending, new products that you had to introduce in support of the R-454B equipment. So there was just, I'll say some initial transition strains that were put there within the supply chain. But if we look, month by month, we've continued to see these debate and really we saw the impact in 11.
Weaning waning, sorry, as the as the quarter kind of progressed and going into April, yeah, we still have a little bit of lingering issue, but by and large we're seeing the light at the end of the tunnel and so that's definitely what's giving us that confidence, going forward. You're not going to be operating in this environment, let's say once we get into the second half of the year, these manufacturers are primarily building the R-454B components.
And so that definitely is, alleviating some of the noise that was created in the supply chain in that first quarter. So definitely a lot of confidence that these are abating and really providing kind of the support of our acceleration and our production levels within the Oklahoma segment in particular, that's going to really get that that top line sales back where we want them to be as well as the overall profit margins kind of with that volume getting back up.
But relative to the basic segment, most of the products that are made in the basic segment. The vast majority of those products are not refrigerant-based systems and so they did not have those same supply chain impacts. So really in the basic segment we didn't see any of those impacts impacting our ability to manufacture there.

Brent Thielman

Really helpful Matt, and then maybe as a follow on, sort of beyond the issues associated with the refrigerant. Change in those associated components. Can you talk about maybe broader exposure just now with the implementation of tariffs and what that might do to the kind of broader supply chain, how you think eons positioned around that where you feel like you're fairly well positioned or not, just for the things that we can't, potentially see coming in terms of broader impacts of the supply chain.

Matthew Tobolski

Yeah, certainly, I mean, tariffs definitely, we had a bet going, Brent, how long was it take for a tariff question to come so it came a little later than we expected on the overall Q&A, but. When we think about the impact of tariffs within the Aon segment, I'll say one thing that we feel good about is we have a tremendous amount of vertical integration in our manufacturing process.
And we also rely heavily and proudly rely heavily on a lot of our US partners. So the exposure tariffs that we see.
From an AAON perspective are certainly less than what we see in some of our competition. So to start off, we say that, certainly we see ourselves being better positioned in a tariff ridden environment. Now we'd be naive to not say they're going to impact us somehow.
I mean, supply chain even for US manufactured components that we might buy, a lot of components that go into those components might be sourced internationally and so there's definitely some tariff impact, and obviously that's reflective in our surcharge, but the general supply chain environment that we have, there'll be some noise, that we think will come out of the tariffs.
But by and large, the focus on US manufacturing, the focus on vertical integration, and really a a pretty strong US based supply chain that we rely on, for the vast majority of our components puts us in a position where, we think those are going to be a smaller impact to AAON, especially relative to a lot of our competition.

Brent Thielman

Okay great just last one just on the basics branded products maybe more of a clarification Matt I think I heard you say. A lot of growth certainly aligned with one of the customers out there. Could you just talk about, diversification of customers within that that product line do you expect more diversity in the coming years, especially as you're bringing on new capacity just trying to get a sense around, how much is aligned with a single customer versus, a lot of a lot of different customers that are out there.

Matthew Tobolski

Yeah, no, it's a great question, Brent, and I'll say that, the math certainly is never in our favor when you get a $200 million dollar order in terms of, its impact on some concentration at least in the near term, but what I would say is, well that is a great win and that's certainly something that is helping fuel a lot of growth.
It's also very front of mind for us to continue getting diversified customer base and so if you look at the activity that we have in terms of book bidding activity in terms of new orders that we have, large scale orders, not small little orders, there's a a continuing diversification in that customer base. There's also a acceleration of new customer interactions, with the weight on that liquid cooling product, we got a tremendous amount of inertia in the industry.
Regarding the solutions we can provide and so our sales and engineering teams are actively engaged with a large spread of new customers supporting both liquid cooling and traditional co-location data center projects.
And that definitely as we look forward is going to be a continued focus, to continue diversifying, continue building upon the great winds we have would be very intentional about continuing to build great wins with new customers as well and so going forward. I think you'll see our backlog continue diversifying in a customer based perspective and really not having us two over leverage on one single customer.
Very good thank you.

Operator

(Operator Instructions)
Timothy Wojs from Baird.

Timothy Wojs

Hey everybody, good morning and just wanted to echo the same sentiments to Gary it's been great working with you, thank you. Maybe just I just have a a couple follow ups so I guess on the Oklahoma business has there been any change to how you're thinking about the full year revenue guidance?
I think previously you kind of said, maybe the full year would be flat to down a little bit. Has that. Has that changed at all? Is it just kind of more back half weighted and then how do you think about kind of layering that surcharge part into that?

Matthew Tobolski

Yes, the guy that stands today has not changed, and, Tim, what I'll say is there's the uncertainty definitely in that back half of the year really, I'll say uncertainty more on the 4 side, as much as we are taking market share and we're continuing to see, good order cadence here in the second quarter, there is definitely still uncertainty in an overall macro environment perspective that is certainly front of mind for us and so our guide definitely has that built into it, and kind of what Q4 looks like.
The tariff part of it, the tariff itself, while it went in place in March, essentially, the reality is we're not going to really start seeing that until the later part of Q3 and so when it's going to really start hitting the production floor, hitting the revenue side, it's going to be a Q3 story.
Is where it's going to start and you'll see that kind of materializing in Q4, but you know it's going to have an impact, but obviously from a full year perspective it's not like we're getting a 6% uplift. It's going to definitely be more like a third of that from an overall kind of impact on the overall sales side of things.
And so really what I'd say is that's the tariff aspect and just the uncertainty that's built into that Q4 guide just given the unknowns around the macro is really where that guide is sitting today.

Timothy Wojs

Okay, that's helpful, thanks and then just on the data or kind of the basics backlog, I mean the $80 to $85 million dollar sequential increase I guess any color I'm kind of the mix of liquid cooling and airside cooling within that and then I guess just in the in the total backlog kind of the same question, kind of the mix of liquid versus air.

Matthew Tobolski

Yeah, definitely there, there's more activity, in liquid cooling that that is in that backlog obviously also some good run rates out of coil products that's eating down that. So you know we replenished the coppers a little bit with some more liquid cooling orders that came in in 11.
There definitely though is airside, continued acceleration of airside looking as well in a lot of activity around airside. And so why I say that it's really, when we look at the activity that we're seeing, definitely there's a lot of conversation, a lot of activity on the AI data center side of things, but there's also continued strength and we continue seeing the investments made in the more traditional data centers, cloud compute data centers.
And we're seeing that kind of materialized with their site activity as well. So we definitely are seeing the broad, bookings kind of built into that backlog and into that business cadence and you know there's a a good amount of backlog sitting inside a liquid cooling, but you know it's not the majority, it's not like it's, the vast majority of that is just cooling. It's a really good, pretty good spread between liquid and air side products.

Timothy Wojs

Okay, thanks for the color. Good luck on the rest of the year.

Matthew Tobolski

Thank you.

Operator

Your last question is from the line of Tom Sandys from Sandy's. Please go ahead.

Yes, I'm a stockholder, go back to Diamond Head, and, what's the problem with Aeon being listed on the New York on the Wall Street Journal? They were listed and now they're not. What's going on? How do we get the stockholders involved, more stockholders involved in buying a stock?

Joseph Mondillo

Hey, Tom, this is Joe. Hi Joe. I think, good morning, I think we've probably spoken about this in the past, I'm. Yeah, I think I'm still looking into that, not really certain the answer but I'll TRY to provide you with an answer, sometime soon.

Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call over to Joe Millo for closing comments, sir, please go ahead.

Joseph Mondillo

All right, thank you, operator. Just want to remind everyone that we'll be attending the William Blair conference on June fourth in Chicago and hosting an investor day in New York City on June 10th. So hope to see some of you there. Want to thank everyone for joining the call today.
If anyone has any questions over the coming days and weeks, please feel free to reach out to myself. Have a great rest of the day, and we look forward to speaking with you in the future. Thanks.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call.Thank you very much for your participation. You may now disconnect.