According to Avery Shenfeld, employment data in the months ahead "could start to reflect the dent at some manufacturing plants from U.S. tariffs, while not yet looking too alarming". Shenfeld said these can be high productivity jobs, so the employment data needn't be that weak to show up more meaningfully in real GDP. CIBC is forecasting an an 10k gain in employment from data for April due out next Friday, compared to a consensus 25k gain and a prior month drop of 32.6k. In a separate preview, CIBC said the "meagre" 10K it forecasts will likely see the unemployment rate tick up to 6.8%, even with the slowdown in population growth seen in recent months.

CIBC in the preview piece said: "While we don't think that the labour market is collapsing, further softness in hiring and a tick up in the unemployment rate would be a signal that slack is gradually opening up within the economy which should bring a 25bp cut from the Bank of Canada at its next meeting."

Shenfled said markets will also be paying close attention to any news from a meeting between Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump next Tuesday, "whether that bears any early fruit in terms of progress on trade issues or at least seems amiable".

(Also on the CIBC calendar for next week is Trade data for March on Tuesday, with CIBC forecasting a deficit of $1.2 billion. That same day Ivey PMI data for April will be released. Then on Thursday the Bank of Canada will release a 'Financial Stability Report', an assessment of potential risks to the stability of Canada's financial system. The Governor and Senior Deputy Governor will hold a press conference at 11am to discuss contents).