Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) risks up to billions in App Store revenue losses after a U.S. judge ruled for greater competition, BofA warns.

BofA analysts led by Wamsi Mohan kept a Buy rating on AAPL, citing earnings resiliency and potential gross margin upside as Apple explores new markets like AR content and cloud gaming, with Services margins around 70%. Apple's 30% commissionand 15% for subscriptions after one yeardrives the Services segment, yet also exposes it to regulatory scrutiny.

Shares were largely flat on Thursday, as investors weighed the potential Services revenue impact. Mohan's team highlights that Apple's Services revenue grew an annualized 12% last year, driven by App Store strength in gaming, enterprise and subscription bundles.

The ruling builds on Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers's earlier decision in the Epic Games case, where she forced Apple to allow external payment links, spotlighting the widening antitrust scrutiny of its closed ecosystem. It could also prompt similar legal battles in Europe and Asia, where regulators are probing app store fees, broadening the scope of potential impact.

SensorTower data show the App Store drives roughly $31 billion in annual revenue, with 35% from the U.S., 24% from China, 9% from the EU and 32% from the rest of the world, BofA notes. The U.S. contributes about $11 billion of that total, leaving $20 billion exposed overseas under this risk scenario.

The analysts say each $1 billion of shifted revenue could shave approximately $0.05 off EPS, meaning a 50% shift by large developersabout $5 billion in saleswould cut EPS by $0.25 or roughly 3% and slice total revenue by 1.2%.

On a global basis, BofA's aggressive scenario sees $16 billion in lost commissions, equating to a $0.80 EPS hit or 10% downside, though the appeals process could alter the outcome and Apple plans to comply while appealing.

This ruling could pressure Apple's high-margin Services growth and weigh on EPS if extended globally, making the appeal's outcome critical for investors.

Investors will be watching Apple's appeal and its fiscal Q3 guidance, due in late July, for signs of margin resilience and any ongoing commentary on Services strategy.