Moderna Inc (MRNA) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with Strategic Cost ...

GuruFocus.com
05-02
  • Revenue: $108 million for Q1 2025, a 35% decrease year-over-year.
  • Net Product Sales: $86 million, primarily from COVID vaccine sales.
  • Net Loss: $1 billion, an improvement from a $1.2 billion loss in Q1 2024.
  • Loss Per Share: $2.52, improved from a loss of $3.07 in the prior year period.
  • Cash and Investments: $8.4 billion at the end of Q1 2025.
  • Cost of Sales: $90 million, representing 104% of net product sales.
  • R&D Expenses: $856 million, a 19% decrease year-over-year.
  • SG&A Expenses: $212 million, down 23% year-over-year.
  • Income Tax Provision: $7 million, not material due to valuation allowance.
  • Full-Year Revenue Guidance: $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion for 2025.
  • Projected Cost of Sales for 2025: Approximately $1.2 billion.
  • Projected R&D Expenses for 2025: Approximately $4.1 billion.
  • Projected SG&A Expenses for 2025: Approximately $1.1 billion.
  • Capital Expenditures for 2025: Projected to be approximately $400 million.
  • Projected Cash and Investments by End of 2025: Approximately $6 billion.
  • Warning! GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Signs with MRNA.

Release Date: May 01, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

  • Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA) achieved a 19% reduction in combined cost of sales, R&D, and SG&A expenses compared to the first quarter of 2024, demonstrating strong financial discipline.
  • The company ended the quarter with $8.4 billion in cash and investments, providing a solid financial foundation.
  • Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA) expanded its market presence with mRESVIA receiving approvals in Australia, Taiwan, the UK, and Switzerland, enhancing its global reach.
  • The oncology portfolio was expanded with the Checkpoint program, showing promising early data and aligning with the company's strategy to diversify its pipeline.
  • Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA) has a robust late-stage pipeline with multiple regulatory filings and ongoing Phase 3 trials, indicating potential future growth opportunities.

Negative Points

  • Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA) reported a net loss of $1 billion for the quarter, reflecting ongoing financial challenges.
  • Total revenue for the quarter decreased by 35% year-over-year, highlighting a decline in sales performance.
  • The company observed lower vaccination rates compared to the previous year, impacting its COVID vaccine sales.
  • The flu COVID combination vaccine's approval timeline has been extended to 2026 due to additional efficacy data requirements, delaying potential revenue from this product.
  • The company faces uncertainties in vaccination rates and competitive market environments, which could impact future revenue projections.

Q & A Highlights

Q: You noted that based on FDA feedback for Phase 3 Flu efficacy data, you now expect an extended review timeline and you're targeting approval in 2026. Could you comment any further on your interactions with the FDA and why they decided to require this? And more broadly, just to the potential risk of the vaccine business outlook under the new administration? A: Thank you, Salveen, for the question. We have moved forward quickly in enrolling cases for the flu efficacy study, which we originally thought might be a two-season study. We now expect a readout soon with a large number of cases. It makes scientific sense to include this in the review for our flu COVID combination. We have demonstrated efficacy for the COVID component, and now we are focusing on the flu component. We continue to have productive exchanges with the FDA across all submissions, and we see a real need for COVID vaccination, especially this fall.

Q: What's the latest on your thinking, whether seeing INT Phase 3 data in 2026 is still a reasonable expectation? What are your plans for new trials, expansions, and other indications for both INT and the newly prioritized Checkpoint? A: The Phase 3 melanoma study reached its target enrollment in September 2024. Based on historical event rates, we expect to have enough events for an efficacy analysis in 2026. We are pleased with the enrollment in the non-small cell lung cancer study but haven't provided a specific timeline. For Checkpoint, we are encouraged by early data and plan to expand into additional cancer indications.

Q: Given how close we are to the PDUFA, it's business as usual for the 1283 review. Can you talk about how interactions are going for that program and your confidence in approval given the new leadership and recent denial of the Novavax program? A: It has been business as usual with the FDA. We have had constructive exchanges of scientific information, and we are confident in making the existing PDUFA date. We continue to provide high-quality data to all regulators, including the FDA, to support their assessments.

Q: Regarding a recent media article about vaccine trials requiring placebo controls, what do you think that will do to enrollment? Will it be harder to enroll, and is that going to be required for all respiratory vaccines? A: We can't comment on a policy change that hasn't been communicated to us. Our COVID, RSV, CMV, and norovirus vaccines have been conducted as placebo-controlled studies. It will depend on FDA and HHS guidance at a program level. Our responsibility is to provide the data that regulators need to stand behind our products.

Q: Can you elaborate on the process for COVID strain selection moving forward given the regulatory uncertainties? A: It is up to regulators in each country to tell us what updates they may want for the coming year. We expect to hear from WHO, EMA, and the US FDA within the next month about what they would like to see for the fall. The process is up to them, and we will follow their guidance.

Q: Regarding the flu COVID combination and the updated timing, is it your expectation that you would need to refile with updated flu efficacy data, or could it be a major amendment? A: It will depend on consultation with the FDA. It is appropriate to submit the data as an amendment to the BLA, but it could also make sense to update the BLA submission broadly. We will follow the FDA's guidance on the most pragmatic approach.

Q: What particular milestones or expectation changes drove you to increase the cost-cutting program? A: Much of this is extending our guidance to 2027, reflecting the completion of large Phase 3 trials by then. We are focusing on what we can control, which is our cost base, to fulfill our commitment to breakeven by 2028. The majority of cost reductions will come from the completion of Phase 3 trials and continued improvements in procurement and operational efficiency.

Q: For norovirus, have you identified the source of the GBS case, and have there been any additional cases noted? A: We have not seen additional GBS cases, which is encouraging. Causality may never be known, as GBS cases occur in the background population. We will continue to monitor for additional cases in our ongoing Phase 3 study.

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

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