Topaz Energy Maintained at Buy at TPH Following Q1 Results; Price Target at C$29.00

MT Newswires Live
2025/05/06

Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Tuesday maintained its buy rating on the shares of Topaz Energy (TPZ.TO) with a C$29.00 price target following first-quarter results from the Western Canadian oil and gas royalty and infrastructure company.

"Positive on Q1'25 results, which were headlined by cash flow and free cash flow ahead of expectations. Q1'25 CFPS totaled C$0.53, ahead of TPHe/Street C$0.49/C$0.50. Net of capex ex-acquisitions (~C$17MM) that totaled C$0.9MM vs TPHe/Street C$1.5MM/C$1.5MM, FCF came in better than expectations at C$81MM vs. TPHe C$74MM. The delta vs. our model on cash flow was driven by 300boepd of stronger production consisting mainly of additional liquids volumes, and stronger realizations on light oil and gas, while infrastructure revenue was inline. On ops, total production of 22.4mboepd bested TPHe/Street 22.1/21.9, with liquids more in-line with consensus at 6.5mbopd vs. TPHe/Street 6.3/6.6. Notably on expenses, net interest costs were lower than our expectations, as TPZ's effective interest rate moved from 6.47% in Q4'24 to 5.03% in Q1'25. On the dividend raise, the increase makes sense given the growth in the portfolio lately and coverage down to $55 WTI and C$0.01/mcf gas, but we were pleasantly surprised on the timing as we were expecting to see the raise later into the year," analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon wrote.

(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)

Price: 23.25, Change: +0.05, Percent Change: +0.22

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