By Scott DiSavino

May 9 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a one-month high on Friday on a drop in output in recent weeks and forecasts for more demand next week than previously expected as gas flows to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants increase.

Gas futures NGc1 for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 10.6 cents, or 3.0%, to $3.698 per million British thermal units, putting the contract on track for its highest close since April 9.

For the week, the front-month was up about 2% after jumping about 24% last week.

Analysts said mild weather expected to last through late May should keep heating and cooling demand low, allowing utilities to continue injecting more gas into storage than normal for this time of year.

Gas stockpiles are currently around 3% above the five-year (2020-2024) normal. EIA/GAS GAS/POLL

Some analysts said mild weather could allow energy firms to add record amounts of gas into storage in May. The current all-time monthly injection high of 494 billion cubic feet was set in May 2015.

If correct, that would come just a few months after utilities pulled a monthly record of 1.013 bcf of gas from storage in January to keep homes and businesses warm during extreme cold weather this winter.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 103.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from a monthly record of 105.8 bcfd in April.

Since gas output hit a daily record high of 107.4 bcfd on April 18, production was on track to drop about 4.8 bcfd to a preliminary 11-week low of 102.6 bcfd on Friday. Analysts have noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

Looking ahead, analysts said the roughly 15% drop in U.S. crude futures CLc1 so far in 2025 would likely prompt drillers to cut back on oil production. Any decline in oil production would ultimately reduce the amount of gas pulled out of the ground that is associated with that oil output. About 37% of U.S. gas production comes from associated gas, according to federal energy data.

Over time, analysts said that reduction in gas output should increase gas prices.

Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through May 23.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 97.1 bcfd this week to 95.5 bcfd next week before rising to 98.2 bcfd. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. fell to 14.9 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record of 16.0 bcfd in April.

The LNG feedgas decline so far this month was mostly due to reductions for maintenance at Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant under construction and in operation in Texas, and a one-day outage at Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas on May 6.

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Editing by Nick Zieminski)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C