By Tracy Qu

Alibaba Group is scheduled to report results for the fiscal fourth quarter on Thursday. Here is what you need to know:

NET PROFIT: The Chinese e-commerce titan is expected to report net profit of 20.28 billion yuan, equivalent to $2.81 billion, for the three months ended March, according to the consensus estimate of 11 analysts polled by FactSet. That would be sharply higher than the 3.27 billion yuan it recorded in the year-earlier period, when losses from investments weighed on its bottom line.

ADJUSTED NET PROFIT: Excluding share-based compensation expenses, investment gains and losses, some impairments and other items, adjusted net profit is expected at 30.53 billion yuan, according to FactSet, compared with 24.42 billion yuan a year ago.

REVENUE: Fourth-quarter revenue was likely 236.18 billion yuan, according to FactSet, higher than 221.87 billion yuan the previous year but down from 280.15 billion yuan in its third quarter.

The company's Hong Kong-listed shares rose 55% in the first three months of the year, driven by optimism over Chinese AI startup DeepSeek and Beijing's more favorable stance toward private enterprises. The stock fell in April amid heightened macroeconomic uncertainties but has erased those losses as market sentiment improved.

WHAT TO WATCH:

--CLOUD BUSINESS: Investors will watch for any tariff impact on cloud demand from large enterprises as well as small and medium enterprise customers. Citi analysts expect Alibaba's gross revenue from cloud computing to rise 17% to 30 billion yuan for the March quarter. Cloud technology innovation and foundation model development are likely to continue progressing rapidly, the analysts wrote in a note.

--E-COMMERCE BUSINESS: Alibaba is expected to have boosted monetization of its core domestic e-commerce business during the quarter, analysts said. Its Quanzhantui digital marketing tool likely helped sustain the growth momentum in customer management revenue, a metric reflecting how much the company earns from merchants, Citi said. In a note, Jefferies analysts estimated that Alibaba's Taobao and Tmall platforms grew earnings before interest, taxes and amortization by about 2% for the period.

Write to Tracy Qu at tracy.qu@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 14, 2025 08:19 ET (12:19 GMT)

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