The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1507 ET - Oil futures add to last week's gains as the U.S. and China agree to slash tariffs for 90 days, but settle off the day's highs as talks on Iran's nuclear program and the Russia-Ukraine war keep open the possibility of sanctions eventually being lifted. "There are still a lot of moving parts on the bullish and bearish side," says John Kilduff of Again Capital. "But without the trade war with China, I think it's taken about $5 of downside risk per barrel out of the market." Further bearish news is possible this week as President Trump travels to the Middle East "and is treated well by Arab countries who he's asked to lower oil prices, and they have come through with plans to gradually increase production," Kilduff adds. WTI settles up 1.5% at $61.95 and Brent rises 1.6% to $64.96, a barrel, off the day's highs of $63.61 and $66.40, respectively. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1454 ET - U.S. natural gas futures retreat after rallying the previous two weeks. Losses were likely due to some profit-taking, while a string of large storage builds remains a bearish consideration, NatGasWeather.com says in a note. While the overall weather outlook is "bearish to neutral leaning," the data "keeps adding a little demand over time to make coming weather patterns not quite as bearish as they had been," the forecaster adds. Nymex natural gas settles down 3.9% at $3.646/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1230 ET - Oil futures are gaining, but off the morning's highs reached after the tariff truce reached between the U.S. and China boosted equities and other assets. "For traders it's a 'risk back on' signal which is triggering some short-covering in crude on ideas global demand fears will lessen," Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. Talks between the U.S. and Iran on Iran's nuclear program, meanwhile, could lead to easing sanctions "which could be a negative force to crude," he adds. Sharp dollar gains on the easing trade tensions could also limit oil's rise. WTI is up 1.9% at $62.20 a barrel, and Brent gains 1.9% to $65.11 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0855 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are lower after rising the previous two weeks, with less immediate impact seen from the 90-day tariff agreement reached between the U.S. and China that's lifting oil. The truce creates mixed conditions for natural gas, Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. "Higher demand for China, a strengthened economic outlook, and reduced risks of a recession in the U.S. are supportive near-term," he says. But higher oil prices may strengthen the outlook for associated gas supply as it takes economic pressure of oil producers. Still, "the uncertainty of the past 45 days suggests that unease in the long-term outlook will linger," he adds. Nymex natural gas is down 1.3% at $3.744/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0819 ET - OPEC+ is expected to halt further increases in oil supply from August as a slowdown in economic activity and weakening oil demand become more evident, according to Goldman Sachs. Analysts at the U.S. bank assume the group will decide to raise production "one final time" by 411,000 barrels a day for July. However, "our economists expect the hard data will start to weaken around mid-to-late summer, and we expect year-over-year global oil demand growth to slow from 600,000 barrels a day in 1Q to flat in 2Q," the analysts say. Still, Goldman warns risks to the output outlook remain skewed to the upside, especially if compliance with production targets doesn't improve. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0751 ET - Crude futures extend gains in afternoon trade after a U.S.-China deal eased concerns over a deepening trade war that has threatened global economic growth and oil demand. Brent climbs 3.8% to $66.35 a barrel, while WTI jumps 4.1% to $63.50 a barrel. After weekend talks in Geneva, the world's top consumers of crude agreed to temporarily slash punishing levies on each other while trade negotiations continue. However, "questions remain for markets as to what the end game will be, as the measure will be operational for 90 days, and what the eventual level of tariffs will be," ING analysts say. "Uncertainty is still high, and volatility is likely to remain elevated across commodities markets." Oil prices are still down more than 11% this year so far amid concerns over OPEC+'s accelerated output hikes and easing geopolitical tensions. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0716 ET - RBC Capital Markets remains positive on Enbridge as a large-cap defensive stock amid macreconomic uncertainty. The energy-infrastructure company's 1Q results highlight why the shares deserve their recent outperformance at a time when the broader energy industry may face the fallout from global trade policy and low commodity prices. Enbridge continues to execute on its growth strategy and its solid 1Q results support the company's affirmed near-term outlook, says RBC. It has an outperform call and C$67 target on the stock, which last closed at C$64.30. (robb.stewart@wsj.com)

0640 ET - Oil prices rise on the de-escalating trade war between China and the U.S. Brent crude is up 3% at $65.80 a barrel, while WTI gains 3.15% to $62.94 a barrel. While oil prices have partially recovered from recent lows on trade policy optimism, prices are likely to edge down further and average $60 and $56 a barrel for Brent and WTI, respectively, for the rest of 2025, Goldman Sachs analysts say in a note. The U.S. bank's base case assumes OPEC hikes supply one final time in July, global supply growth excluding OPEC, Russia and U.S. shale is strong, and that demand slows but the U.S. avoids a recession. High spare capacity and elevated recession concerns skew the medium-term risks to oil prices to the downside, Goldman says. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0617 ET - China and the U.S. rolling back tariffs should inject positive sentiment into Hong Kong and Chinese equities, Citi Research analysts say. While the reductions will last for 90 days, bilateral discussions will continue, Pierre Lau and others write in a note. Citi flags communications infrastructure, tech hardware, solar equipment, and semiconductors as the sectors that are most sensitive to tariffs. Among the firms with the largest profit mix generated from the U.S. are: Innolight, Eoptolink, TFC Optical, Tongfu, JCET, Jinko and JA Solar. Citi prefer H- to A-shares on a 12-month basis, assuming more rate cuts in the U.S.--benefitting HKD-- than in China. It is overweight on internet, tech and consumer sectors, with top picks including Tencent, Huaneng Power, Trip.com, BYD, AIA, Atour and Anta.(fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0430 ET - European natural-gas prices rise as the European Union threatens new sanctions against Russia. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract rises 3.5% to 35.83 euros a megawatt hour. Ukraine's European allies have threatened fresh sanctions, including a permanent block on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline that connects Russia to Germany, if Russia doesn't agree to a 30-day ceasefire proposed by President Trump. The EU has already increased pressure on Russia by detailing plans to cut most energy imports from Russia by the end of 2027. At the same time, gas has also been boosted by a general risk-on market sentiment, as the U.S. and China agreed to substantially cut tariffs pending further talks. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0405 ET - Aramco's first-quarter earnings narrowly beat expectations after a better-than-expected performance in its upstream business, Jefferies analysts Giacomo Romeo and Kai Ye Loh write. Earnings before interest and taxes in the upstream division were 6% above consensus expectations, they say. The focus of the analyst call later on Monday will be Aramco's dividend breakeven point given the current oil price outlook, the analysts write. Aramco's shares trade up 2% at 25.5 Saudi riyals. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0357 ET - Oil prices rise on market optimism as the U.S. and China agree to suspend most mutual tariffs pending further talks. Brent crude is up 2.4% at $65.46 a barrel, while WTI is up 2.6% at $62.62 a barrel. Oil has gained on a general risk-on sentiment in the market, as the lowering of the tariffs improves the outlook for the global economy. That raises the prospect of a limit to weakness in oil demand, ANZ Research analysts say in a note. That said, concerns over higher supply continue to hang over the market. OPEC's move to accelerate planned production hikes signal a significant shift in supply policy, ANZ writes. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 12, 2025 15:07 ET (19:07 GMT)

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