MW Trump's big tax bill is in jeopardy. Here's why some in GOP are getting cold feet.

By Chris Matthews

Republican hardliners are threatening to kill the legislation

House Speaker Mike Johnson's push to pass a sweeping tax and spending bill - the centerpiece of President Donald Trump's agenda - is running into trouble, as the Louisiana Republican attempts to paper over divisions in his conference over growing deficits, cuts to Medicaid and contentious tax provisions.

As the House Budget Committee met Friday morning to stitch together the bill's 11 component parts, conservative hardliners made clear they weren't ready to fall in line. "If they don't [change it], I'm gonna vote no," Republican Budget Committee member Ralph Norman was quoted as having told Punchbowl News. "We'll kill it."

Norman's views represent those of many conservatives on the panel and in the broader conference who are concerned about the legislation's price tag.

TD Cowen's Chris Krueger wrote in a Friday note to clients that the legislation was "in jeopardy, given the GOP hardliner concerns in the House Budget Committee."

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the package would add as much as $5.2 trillion to the national debt through 2034. That includes more than $4 trillion to make permanent the 2017 tax cuts and new tax breaks on tips and an expanded standard deduction for seniors.

Republican Rep. Glenn Grothman of Wisconsin expressed his displeasure over the bill at Friday's Budget Committee meeting, even as he said he would support it. "I think we had the opportunity here to have a truly transformative bill," he said, criticizing the bill's lack of more aggressive spending cuts. "Too many people out here did did not want the wonderful bill so many of us were expecting in January and February."

Many in the caucus, however, think the cuts go too far and fear casting an unpopular vote for Medicaid cuts that will ultimately be stripped out as the Senate takes up the legislation.

Republican Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri added fuel to these fears with an op-ed this week stating he would not vote for legislation that cuts Medicaid.

Some Republicans want to "build our big, beautiful bill around slashing health insurance for the working poor," Hawley wrote in the New York Times. "But that argument is both morally wrong and politically suicidal."

Opinion: Why are Republican senators fighting against federal budget cuts? Because they have to.

With an eye on the the 2026 midterms, moderates from swing districts in blue states like New York and California are also pressing for changes, particularly a higher cap on the state-and-local-tax deduction, known as SALT. The current proposal would raise the cap for families from $10,000 to $30,000 for those making less than $400,000 annually.

For SALT caucus members like Rep. Mike Lawler of New York, and other coastal Republicans, that is not enough to win their votes.

"They were trying to jam us with a number in the hopes that they would just say, 'This is the number and you got to take it,' " Lawler reportedly told Politico Friday. "And from my vantage point that's no way to run a two-car parade let alone the House of Representatives."

Even if the bill makes it out of the Budget Committee on Friday, Johnson's tightrope walk will continue next week, when the Rules Committee is expected to consider the measure. That means Johnson will need buy-in from Norman and fellow House Republican Chip Roy of Texas. Both serve on the rules panel and are publicly opposed to the current version.

And that's even before the SALT caucus pushes for changes that would raise the SALT cap, an expensive provision that generally would benefit upper-middle-class taxpayers in coastal and certain urban districts.

If the Budget Committee manages to advance the bill, the next step is the Rules Committee, followed by a potential House floor vote as early as next week.

Trump is lobbying for Republicans to united around the legislation.

"Republicans must unite behind the 'one, big beautiful bill!' " he posted on Truth Social on Friday. "We don't need any grandstanders in the Republican Party. Stop talking, and get it done!"

Passing the bill out of the House may be the relatively easy part, according to analysts at Beacon Policy Advisors.

"The potentially bigger issue is if the Senate ... eliminates some of the revenue-raising provisions relating to Medicaid [and food stamps and clean-energy tax credits], it's possible that deficit hawks in the House choose to make a stand," when the bill gets sent back to the lower chamber, they wrote.

"While far from our base case," they added, "there is a nonzero risk that the Senate's modifications make the bill overly problematic in the House, forcing lawmakers back to the drawing board."

-Chris Matthews

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 16, 2025 12:17 ET (16:17 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.