AGS WEEK AHEAD: Macro Outlook Clouded by U.S. Rating Downgrade; Weather Supports Crops

Dow Jones
2025/05/20
 

By Giulia Petroni

 

A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week of May 19-23 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona.

 

GRAINS & OILSEEDS: Stock markets weakened on Monday after Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating due to soaring debt and spending, driving bond yields higher and weakening the U.S. dollar. From a data standpoint, this week is expected to be relatively quiet ahead of Memorial Day on May 26.

Meanwhile, U.S. weather conditions are highly favorable for crop development, with cool temperatures and widespread rain across the Corn Belt, including in drought-affected areas like Northern Illinois, according to Peak Trading Research. These conditions are ideal for newly planted crops, with the upcoming USDA June crop condition reports for corn, soybeans, and spring wheat expected to begin on a strong note. Corn planting progress is projected to surpass 75%, up from 62% last week, and soybeans should reach around 65% from 48%. "Overall, it's been a near-ideal planting window and U.S. Grain markets have very little weather risk premium priced in," analysts at the firm say.

Chicago wheat futures rise 0.4% at $5.27 a bushel on Monday, while corn is up 0.4% to $4.45 a bushel. Soybean prices trade 0.1% lower at $10.49 a bushel.

 

SOFT COMMODITIES: Cocoa futures surged 7.8% between May 7 and May 14, with bullish sentiment fueled by concerns about poor weather in West Africa affecting harvest quality and size, analysts at BMI say. Meanwhile, cocoa regulators in Ivory Coast and Ghana are holding back bean sales for next season in hopes of higher prices, according to a report by Bloomberg.

Sugar prices also posted a weekly increase due to a sharp drop in late-April output from Brazil's Centro-Sul region, while coffee fell as improved production expectations in Brazil eased supply fears.

On Monday, cocoa is up 0.6% to $10,967 a metric ton, while coffee rises 2% to $3.73 a pound. Meanwhile, sugar is up 0.3% at $0.18 a pound.

 

Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 19, 2025 12:26 ET (16:26 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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