AGS WEEK AHEAD: Macro Outlook Mixed on Weaker U.S. Dollar, Higher Interest Rates

Dow Jones
05-28
 

By Joe Hoppe

 

A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week May 27-30 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona.

 

GRAINS & OILSEEDS: The macro mood is mixed, as a weaker U.S. dollar partially offsets interest rates drifting higher.

The U.S. dollar is weaker on week, good for agricultural exports, though investors are also selling U.S. bonds, which lifts interest rates, damping enthusiasm for risk assets, Peak Trading analysts say in a note.

Wednesday will see the release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes while Fed-preferred inflation metric Personal Consumption Expenditure data will be released on Friday. Dovish comments from the minutes or softer inflation data would keep the U.S. dollar trending lower, a boon for dollar-denominated commodities.

Meanwhile on the weather front, forecasts point to mostly favorable weather in the U.S., with average temperatures and heavy rains across most of the southern Corn Belt. The rains will largely miss already wet parts of Indiana and Ohio, helping farmers wrap up planting.

The weather has been near ideal ahead of June's insurance dates and crop condition reports, adding selling pressure, Peak Trading says. Hedge funds have been heavily selling positions in agricultural commodities, particularly in corn on good weather and faster planting.

Chicago wheat futures are down 2.4% at $5.30 a bushel on Tuesday, while corn is flat on $4.60 a bushel. Soybean prices are up 0.2% at $10.63 a bushel.

 

SOFT COMMODITIES: Agricultural softs have broadly sold off over the past week in volatile trading, with cocoa, coffee and sugar seeing losses.

Cocoa has fallen nearly 10% over the past week though it remains up 4.3% on month in thin trading. Bullish cocoa sentiment had been fueled by concerns over weather conditions in West Africa, which are hitting the size and quality of the current harvest, BMI analysts say in a note.

Improving Brazilian harvest expectations for both coffee and sugar are also exerting downward pressure on both crops. Domestic pricing dynamics in Brazil currently favor sugar production over ethanol and strong production is expected, and coffee harvest expectations have improved, though a decline is still anticipated, BMI says.

On Tuesday, cocoa is up 0.1% at $9,770 a metric ton, while coffee is up 0.3% at $3.62 a pound. Sugar is down 1% at $0.17 a pound.

 

Write to Joe Hoppe at joseph.hoppe@wsj.com

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 27, 2025 12:00 ET (16:00 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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