By Peter Hobson

CANBERRA, May 28 (Reuters) - Australian farmers are set to plant a similar area with wheat this year to last season, while increasing barley and reducing canola sowing, as low wheat prices boost barley's appeal and dry conditions make canola less viable, analysts said.

Eastern and some western cropping areas have received ample rain but a lack of soil moisture in South Australia, Victoria and parts of Western Australia hangs over the harvest outlook.

The median of seven forecasts from analysts and traders was for Australia to produce 30.3 million metric tons of wheat in 2025/26, which is 3.8 million tons lower than last year's output but above the 10-year average of 27.6 million tons.

Australia is the world's fourth-largest wheat exporter and ships feed grain barley to buyers in countries including China, Japan and Saudi Arabia.

Demand for Australian canola could rise in the coming season from China with Beijing locked in a trade dispute with Canada, its traditional supplier of the oilseed.

Australian farmers are now sowing winter crops that they will harvest towards year-end.

The median estimate for Australia's wheat planting shows no change from last year. Barley is expected to rise by 2% and canola to decline by 5%, although some forecasts suggest much larger shifts for both crops.

Some analysts also said planting of pulses - lentils and chickpeas - could increase by as much as 20% after they offered bumper returns in recent seasons.

High fertiliser costs and wheat prices Wv1 near 5-year lows are discouraging wheat planting, while expectations of strong feed demand are making barley more attractive, said Rabobank analyst Vitor Pistoia.

Australia is used to dry starts to the cropping season and many farmers enact their sowing plans regardless, putting seeds into dry earth and hoping rain will come.

However, some do respond to conditions.

"When it's dry, farmers drop higher risk production crops like canola and plant more wheat or barley," said Stefan Meyer, who runs a grains trading team at brokers StoneX.

The states that have suffered the biggest deficit of rainfall, South Australia and Victoria, are not the biggest producing regions, said Ole Houe, director of advisory services at IKON Commodities.

"Even if it doesn't rain in those two states, it would be a 28-29 million ton wheat crop," he said.

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology this month predicted median or above median rainfall during June-to-August in most cropping regions, with the exception of parts of Victoria and Western Australia.

The tables below show analysts' estimates of 2025/26 season planted area and, for wheat, production. Each analyst has given the percentage change from their own prior year estimate.

WHEAT

BARLEY

CANOLA

(Reporting by Peter Hobson; Editing by Naveen Thukral and Lincoln Feast.)

((peter.hobson@thomsonreuters.com;))