By Reshma Kapadia

Critical minerals will likely remain a source of leverage for Beijing in trade talks with the U.S., even if President Donald Trump's Thursday call with Xi Jinping speeds up the flow of rare earths to feed auto, industrial and other supply chains.

The issue dates back to early April, when China imposed restrictions on exports of the metals as part of its retaliation against Trump's imposition of tariffs of up to 145% on its exports to the U.S. In mid May, after negotiators met in Geneva, the U.S. said China had agreed to lift the restrictions as the countries agreed to a 90-day pause on levies that were choking off trade between them.

The problem is that while China is allowing exports of rare earths, used in magnets that go into automobiles, for example, companies that want to export them need licenses. Companies say they aren't easy to get, though Reuters reported on Friday that Beijing had granted temporary licenses to suppliers of the big three U.S. auto makers.

Its report cited people familiar with the matter. A spokesperson from the Chinese embassy said he wasn't aware of the situation specifically related to the licensing, reiterating that the export control measures are in line with international common practices, nondiscriminatory, and not targeted at specific countries.

While only a fraction of the members of the American Chamber of Commerce in China -- mostly technology and industrial companies -- were affected by rare-earth export restrictions, three-quarters of those said their supplies would run out within three months, according to a survey from the trade group. While the survey found that Chinese suppliers to U.S. companies had recently been granted six-month export licenses, they noted continued uncertainty because there is a large backlog of license applications.

Gracelin Baskaran, a mining economist and director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said about 25% of licenses applied for have been given out, but that they aren't being processed fast enough.

Part of that is due to the administrative task. China is the source of 100% of the rare-earth processing capability in the world, so it is issuing licenses for exports not just to the U.S., but for many other countries.

But it could also be part of the negotiations. "China has made it very clear it's not satisfied with the 90-day tariff pause and looking for a more durable solution to the tariff conundrum," said Baskaran, noting the deflationary impact of the tariffs on China's economy. "It's not in their incentive to give out licenses quickly as their economy is in a downward spiral. These licenses are their leverage."

The U.S. had been the dominant rare-earth producer until the 1990s, but China steadily took market share, ramping up production to levels that made it unprofitable for others, forcing them out, Baskaran said. A similar phenomenon is currently under way in nickel, she added. The U.S. has been producing rare earths in California and is building out separation and processing capabilities, with companies like MP Materials boosting their refining abilities. "It's a perfectly solvable problem and one the U.S. is working at warp speed to address," Baskaran said. "It's not a forever problem."

That said, it could continue be a source of pain, leaving the U.S. vulnerable in talks with China. An array of industries reliant on these critical minerals, from autos to electronics, semiconductors, and defense, are likely to suffer.

Write to Reshma Kapadia at reshma.kapadia@barrons.com

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June 06, 2025 16:26 ET (20:26 GMT)

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