By Ryan Dezember

Federal energy forecasters slashed their forecast for ethane exports and production for this year and next after the Trump administration restricted exports of the plastic-making ingredient to China.

President Trump has given Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his team of negotiators leeway to lift export controls on ethane, software and jet engines and related components in trade talks with China, which has blocked rare-earth shipments to U.S. industries.

The U.S. is the only ethane supplier to China, which has built petrochemical facilities to turn the byproduct of oil-and-gas drilling into plastics. A ban on shipments to China would leave about half of U.S. ethane exports without a destination.

The export restrictions may be fleeting. But assuming they are upheld, the Energy Information Administration cut its forecast for total U.S. ethane exports this year by 24% to 410,000 barrels a day and by 51% to 310,000 barrels a day in 2026. "Additionally, we reduced our forecast for U.S. ethane production for both 2025 and 2026 because we expect that without an outlet for exports, ethane will not be separated from the natural-gas stream," the EIA said in its monthly energy markets outlook.

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 10, 2025 14:23 ET (18:23 GMT)

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