Storage injections hit triple-digits for record-tying seventh week
Storage additions in May hit monthly record high
Sabine LNG export plant seen back at full service in late June
By Scott DiSavino
June 12 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% on Thursday on expectations gas flows to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants will rise now that Cameron LNG's plant in Louisiana is set to take in more fuel as it exits a maintenance reduction.
Gas futures for July delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 9.0 cents, or 2.6%, to $3.597 per million British thermal units. On Wednesday, the contract closed at its lowest since May 30 for a third day in a row.
That price increase came despite forecasts for lower demand this week, a slight increase in daily output and a record-tying seventh triple-digit injection of gas into storage last week.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration $(EIA)$ said energy firms added 109 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended June 6.
That was in line with the 108-bcf injection analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with an increase of 77 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average build of 87 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS GAS/POLL
The last time energy firms added 100 bcf or more of gas into storage for seven weeks in a row was in June 2014, according to EIA data going back to 2010.
So far this year, energy firms have pulled a monthly record high of 1.013 bcf of gas out of storage during a brutally cold January and added a monthly record high of 497 bcf into storage in May when mild weather kept both heating and cooling demand low, according to federal energy data. The prior all-time monthly injection high was 494 bcf in May 2015.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states eased to 105.1 billion cubic feet per day so far in June, down from 105.2 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd in March due primarily to normal spring maintenance. Output so far this month, however, was higher than the 105.0 bcfd projected on Wednesday.
Meteorologists forecast weather across the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through June 27.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 98.1 bcfd this week to 99.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday, while the forecast for next week was lower.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 14.0 bcfd so far in June, down from 15.0 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.
Traders said LNG feedgas reductions since April were primarily due to spring maintenance, including work at Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass in Louisiana and 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi in Texas, and short, unplanned unit outages at Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas on May 6, May 23, May 28 and June 3.
Gas flows to Cameron were on track to rise to a six-week high of 2.0 bcfd on Thursday, up from 1.8 bcfd on Wednesday and an average of 1.4 bcfd during the maintenance reduction from May 1-June 10, according to LSEG data.
Energy traders said they expect maintenance to continue through late-June at Sabine, which has been pulling in about 3.0 bcfd of gas since the end of May. That compares with an average of 4.5 bcfd during the month of May.
Week ended Jun 6 Actual | Week ended May 30 Actual | Year ago Jun 6 | Five-year average Jun 6 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +109 | +122 | +77 | +87 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,707 | 2,598 | 2,963 | 2,568 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +5.4% | +4.7% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.64 | 3.51 | 2.81 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 12.24 | 12.05 | 10.87 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.45 | 12.41 | 12.30 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 10 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 189 | 186 | 189 | 160 | 155 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 199 | 195 | 200 | 172 | 168 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 104.9 | 105.3 | 105.1 | 100.9 | 96.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.5 | 8.0 | 7.3 | N/A | 7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 112.4 | 113.2 | 112.4 | N/A | 104.1 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.4 | 6.9 | 7.3 | N/A | 6.3 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 13.5 | 13.7 | 14.7 | 12.9 | 9.1 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.8 |
U.S. Residential | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 34.5 | 38.0 | 38.5 | 38.1 | 38.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.3 | 22.1 | 22.2 | 21.6 | 21.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 72.9 | 75.8 | 76.3 | 75.3 | 76.8 |
Total U.S. Demand | 95.5 | 98.1 | 99.9 | N/A | 88.2 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 79 | 79 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 79 | 79 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 81 | 81 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jun 13 | Week ended Jun 6 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 9 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 8 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 41 | 40 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 17 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.73 | 2.79 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.04 | 2.09 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.00 | 3.36 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.92 | 1.83 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.59 | 2.57 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.23 | 2.00 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.49 | 3.43 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 2.25 | 1.78 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.96 | 0.83 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 35.67 | 33.10 | |||
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 58.59 | 46.58 | |||
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 30.52 | 37.96 | |||
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 37.48 | 40.77 | |||
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 20.39 | 23.54 |
text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminalFor graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.htmlFor next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NGFor next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWRFor U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLLFor U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFCFor U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGASFor the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWERTo determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565BNYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
(Reporting by Scott DiSavinoEditing by Marguerita Choy)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))
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