Cameron LNG showing signs of exiting maintenance reduction
Gas storage on track for 7th triple digit injection
Gas storage injections hit monthly record high in May
By Scott DiSavino
June 11 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Wednesday on forecasts for more demand this week than previously expected with an expected increase in flows to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants as Cameron LNG's plant in Louisiana shows signs of exiting a maintenance reduction.
Gas futures NGc1 for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 3.5 cents, or 1.0%, to $3.568 per million British thermal units. On Tuesday, the contract closed at its lowest since May 30 for a second day in a row.
Prices edged up even as energy firms continue to add record amounts of gas into storage and as the cost of spot gas remains well below futures prices.
So far this year, energy firms have pulled a monthly record high of 1.013 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during a brutally cold January and added a monthly record high of 497 bcf into storage in May when mild weather kept both heating and cooling demand low, according to federal energy data. The prior all-time monthly injection high was 494 bcf in May 2015.
Analysts expect energy firms will keep setting storage records in coming weeks with a record-tying, seventh triple-digit injection forecast for the week ended June 6. The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release the storage report for the week ended June 6 on Thursday. EIA/GAS GAS/POLL
The last time energy firms added 100 bcf or more of gas into storage for seven weeks in a row was in June 2014, according to federal energy data going back to 2010.
Next-day gas prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark NG-W-HH-SNL in Louisiana were trading around $2.79 per mmBtu, keeping spot contracts below front-month futures every day since late April.
Analysts have said that so long as spot prices remain far enough below front-month futures NGc1 to cover margin and storage costs, traders should be able to lock in arbitrage profits by buying spot gas, storing it and selling a futures contract.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states eased to 105.0 billion cubic feet per day so far in June, down from 105.2 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd in March due primarily to normal spring maintenance.
Meteorologists project weather across the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through June 26.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 98.6 bcfd this week to 100.0 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday, while the forecast for next week was lower.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 13.8 bcfd so far in June, down from 15.0 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.
Traders said LNG feedgas reductions since April were primarily due to spring maintenance, including work at Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana and 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant in Texas, and short, unplanned unit outages at Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas on May 6, May 23, May 28 and June 3.
Energy traders have noted that LNG maintenance would likely continue through mid-June at Cameron and late-June at Sabine. Gas flows to Cameron were on track to edge up to a four-week high of 1.5 bcfd on Wednesday, up from an average of 1.4 bcfd over the past month, according to LSEG data.
Week ended Jun 6 Forecast | Week ended May 30 Actual | Year ago Jun 6 | Five-year average Jun 6 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +105 | +122 | +77 | +87 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,703 | 2,598 | 2,963 | 2,568 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +5.3% | +4.7% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.58 | 3.53 | 2.81 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.80 | 11.64 | 10.87 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.41 | 12.44 | 12.30 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 9 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 186 | 190 | 189 | 160 | 152 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 195 | 198 | 200 | 172 | 16 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 104.9 | 105.2 | 105.2 | 100.9 | 96.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.5 | 8.0 | 7.3 | N/A | 7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 112.4 | 113.2 | 112.5 | N/A | 104.1 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.4 | N/A | 6.3 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 13.5 | 13.6 | 14.2 | 12.9 | 9.1 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.8 |
U.S. Residential | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 34.5 | 38.2 | 38.9 | 38.1 | 38.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.3 | 22.1 | 22.2 | 21.6 | 21.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 72.9 | 76.0 | 76.7 | 75.3 | 76.8 |
Total U.S. Demand | 95.5 | 98.6 | 100.0 | N/A | 88.2 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 79 | 79 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 79 | 79 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 81 | 81 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jun 13 | Week ended Jun 6 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 9 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 8 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 40 | 40 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.79 | 3.13 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.09 | 1.81 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.36 | 3.35 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.83 | 1.70 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.57 | 2.59 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.00 | 2.06 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.43 | 3.60 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.78 | 1.80 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.83 | 0.96 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 33.10 | 35.18 | |||
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 46.58 | 38.87 | |||
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 37.96 | 61.87 | |||
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 40.77 | 51.17 | |||
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 23.54 | 32.21 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
免责声明:投资有风险,本文并非投资建议,以上内容不应被视为任何金融产品的购买或出售要约、建议或邀请,作者或其他用户的任何相关讨论、评论或帖子也不应被视为此类内容。本文仅供一般参考,不考虑您的个人投资目标、财务状况或需求。TTM对信息的准确性和完整性不承担任何责任或保证,投资者应自行研究并在投资前寻求专业建议。