Al Root

Cathie Wood's ARK Invest released its valuation for Elon Musk's rocket company, SpaceX, on Tuesday evening.

The numbers are, as investors might expect, eye-popping. (One could even say that ARK expects SpaceX's valuation to go to the moon.)

ARK believes SpaceX will be worth $2.5 trillion in 2030, up from about $350 billion today. That implies an average annual return of almost 40%. That value is only a rough guide. ARK tries to simulate the future using different scenarios to arrive at an expected valuation.

Whatever the process, the base $2.5 trillion number is a lot, about 12 times the current value of Boeing.

By 2030, ARK projects SpaceX sales could approach $200 billion with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, north of $150 billion, implying Ebitda profit margins north of 80%. Almost all the expected revenue comes from Starlink and Starshield, SpaceX's space-based communications systems.

ARK values SpaceX at 18 times 2030 Ebitda.

For 2024, ARK estimated about $10 billion in revenue for SpaceX, composed of roughly $3 billion for launch services, $5 billion for Starlink, and $2 billion for Starshield.

Interestingly, ARK projects the book value of SpaceX's assets on Mars to be close to $1 billion by 2030. That is the value of equipment on the red planet by the end of the decade. Musk wants to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars as soon as 2026 using SpaceX's Starship launch vehicle, the biggest rocket system ever built by humans. By 2040, the book value of Mars assets could balloon to $1 trillion, according to ARK's projections.

To some extent, ARK tries to imagine the possible. Cathie Wood's investment fund believes Tesla will be worth $8 trillion by 2029.

That's more than $10 trillion by the of the decade for two of Elon Musk's companies, with assets spread literally across the solar system. It is amazing to imagine.

SpaceX, of course, is privately held. It is tough to own. There are a few funds that hold shares, including the ARK Venture Fund, Baron Focused Growth Fund, and Destiny Tech 100.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

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June 11, 2025 09:18 ET (13:18 GMT)

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