Bitcoin's BTC/USD rally to $110,300, just $2.400 shy of its all-time high, faces its first major resistance at $115,400, according to a Glassnode report on Tuesday.

What Happened: The report highlights this critical threshold as the market enters price discovery, with the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis at $97.6K acting as a key support level.

"On the upside, the $115,400 zone emerges as the first significant resistance should the market enter price discovery," the report states.

After a correction to $101,000, Bitcoin has shown resilience, recovering to $110,300, driven by renewed demand and robust investor confidence.

The report notes that holding above $100,000 signals strong market sentiment, despite a brief dip in the Fear and Greed Index into the ‘Fear' category.

However, volatility risks are rising, with on-chain data indicating a dense cluster of coins near current prices, potentially amplifying price sensitivity.

Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are increasingly active, realizing $930 million in daily profits, a level comparable to the $840 million/day seen at the $73,000 all-time high but below the $1.64 billion/day peak during the $100,000 breakout.

"This dynamic suggests that while LTH profit-taking is elevated, current price levels are not yet attractive enough to trigger broader-scale distribution," Glassnode explains.

Despite this, LTH wealth remains high, driven by accumulation and institutional participation, particularly through U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs.

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Why It Matters: The report also highlights a contrast between on-chain and options markets.

While on-chain metrics suggest rising volatility due to coin supply concentration, options traders are pricing in low volatility, with At-the-Money Implied Volatility (ATM IV) at its lowest since July 2024.

"Historically, such complacency in volatility pricing has often served as a counter-trend signal, preceding periods of heightened volatility," the report warns.

Technical indicators, including the 111-day ($92,900), 200-day ($95,400), and 365-day ($81,700) moving averages, show Bitcoin trading well above these levels, reinforcing bullish momentum.

The STH cost basis, with standard deviation bands at $115,400 (+1σ) and $83,900 (-1σ), further delineates key thresholds.

The report's UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric indicates sparse on-chain volume above current prices, suggesting that sustained demand will be critical to push past $115,400.

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