Main US indexes up modestly
Tech leads S&P 500 sector gainers; Materials, Staples dip
Euro STOXX 600 off ~0.2%
Dollar, bitcoin dip; gold gains; crude up >2%
US 10-Year Treasury yield falls to ~4.44%
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
WAITING FOR THE CHICKENS TO COME HOME TO ROOST: CPI, BARELY CHANGED, TARIFF EFFECT A NO-SHOW
The week's most hotly anticipated data in the form of CPI surprised to the downside on Wednesday; the expected tariff effect failed to appear.
The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index $(CPI.UK)$ USCPI=ECI, which tracks the prices U.S. consumers pay for a basket of goods and services, unexpectedly cooled down last month.
On a monthly basis, headline and core (ex. food, energy) prices both increased by a scant 0.1%. Both measures landed south of consensus and marked a deceleration from April.
Year-over-year, headline and core printed at 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively. The headline number added heat from the prior month's 2.3%, while the core measure repeated the March figure. But again, both came in just a hair below analyst expectations.
With core inflation within one percentage point of Powell & Co's 2% target, one might think the Fed is eyeing its next rate cut.
But President Trump's market-rattling tariff blitz, still a moving target as negotiations plod along, is still looming large, and have likely not affected inflation data as companies sell merchandise accumulated as trade related uncertainties sparked an inventory rush.
"The jury is still out on the economic effects from tariffs," writes Skylar Weinand, chief investment officer at Regan Capital, who adds that current economic data "must be taken in conjunction with the next few months to better understand the economic effects of tariffs, which take time to work their way through the economy."
Core CPI, incidentally, is the second major indicator to show annual inflation taking a pause on its meandering journey back down to that elusive 2%.
Line-by-line, a 1.0% drop in energy prices helped drive gasoline and air fares down 2.6% and 2.7%, respectively, while food, utilities and prescription drug price growth was hotter than the broader average.
The Fed continues to scrutinize two segments; the cost of shelter, which rose 0.3% and services, which notched a 0.2% increase. Year-over-year, shelter and services show respective growth of 3.9% and 3.7%, running well above the underlying measures.
Even so, they appear to be moving in an agreeable direction.
"Shelter and energy are going to keep the disinflation trend intact - prices are moving down in two of the largest categories, so investors should expect further declines in inflation in the coming months," opines Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group.
Separately, cost of financing home loans ticked a bit higher last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Be that as it may, overall mortgage demand counterintuitively surged by 12.5%.
The average 30-year fixed contract rate USMG=ECI added exactly one basis point to land at 6.93%.
Even so potential buyers USMGPI=ECI increased by 10.3% and refi applications, which accounted for 36.7% of total mortgage activity, jumped by 15.6%.
“Coming out of the Memorial Day holiday, mortgage applications increased to the highest level in over a month, driven by growth in both purchase and refinance applications," writes Joel Kan, MBA’s deputy chief economist. "Despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the economy, homebuyers seem to be taking advantage of loosening housing inventory in certain markets.”
The 30-year fixed rate, having taken a roller coaster ride over the last 12 months, is now just 9 basis points cooler than it was the same week a year ago.
Over that same time frame, purchase and refi demand have grown by 18.9% and 27.5%, respectively.
(Stephen Culp)
*****
EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:
WALL STREET NEARING RECORDS; TRUMP SAYS US-CHINA DEAL DONE CLICK HERE
IF NOT SWEET, DOGE SPENDING CUT IMPACT LIKELY TO BE SHORT CLICK HERE
SEAS OF CONTENTION: THE NEXT FRONT IN THE US-CHINA TRADE CONFLICT ISN'T ON LAND CLICK HEREUS STOCK FUTURES RISE, YIELDS SLUMP, AFTER COOLER-THAN-EXPECTED CPI CLICK HERE
CITI'S POSITIVE VIEW ON EUROPE TURNS MORE STRUCTURAL CLICK HERE
AND CPI MATTERS AGAIN, HOW 2024 CLICK HERE
EUROPE'S SMALL CAPS LEADING THE RECOVERY CLICK HERE
INDITEX DRAGS ON RETAIL, BRITISH HOMEBUILDERS GOING UP CLICK HERE
EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: STOCKS SHRUG OFF HEFTY NEWS FLOW CLICK HERE
MORNING BID: SO, IT'S A FRAMEWORK FOR A DEAL, MAYBE? CLICK HERE
CPI shelter and services https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/zjpqaxyglpx/CPIshelterservices.png
Inflation gauges https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/gkpljrlzypb/inflation.png
MBA https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/dwvkjoznnpm/mba.png
免责声明:投资有风险,本文并非投资建议,以上内容不应被视为任何金融产品的购买或出售要约、建议或邀请,作者或其他用户的任何相关讨论、评论或帖子也不应被视为此类内容。本文仅供一般参考,不考虑您的个人投资目标、财务状况或需求。TTM对信息的准确性和完整性不承担任何责任或保证,投资者应自行研究并在投资前寻求专业建议。