Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) shares and Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) shares are under the spotlight with Macquarie analysing the potential of both supermarket stocks to deliver returns.

The two supermarket businesses benefited from a strong period during the high inflation of food prices in the last few years, but now those businesses are reporting virtually flat inflation of food prices.

How much are Coles shares and Woolworths shares now worth in this new phase where inflation has been tamed?

Let's take a look at what Macquarie thinks of both businesses.

Expert views on the ASX supermarket stocks

Macquarie said in a note that over the year so far, non-discretionary categories have been "wallet share gainers", as consumers reduce spending in some discretionary categories.

The broker thinks categories like groceries are taking market share, though consumer spending growth compared to the prior corresponding period is only "slightly positive". Macquarie thinks grocery spending is broadly flat likely due to ongoing "trading down" compared to the prior corresponding period.

Macquarie said that of the wide array of retail businesses, the broker remains positive on Coles shares and Woolworths shares, driven by a "relatively defensive top-line (population growth [being] a key tailwind) and other initiatives driving earnings".

Macquarie's price targets on Coles shares and Woolworths shares

A price target is where analysts think the share price of a business will be in 12 months from the time of the investment call.

Macquarie currently has an outperform rating on Coles shares, which essentially means a buy. The broker has a price target of $23.10 on Coles right now. That means the broker is suggesting the ASX supermarket stock could rise by approximately 5.6% from its current level.

Macquarie also has an outperform rating on Woolworths shares, so the broker is essentially calling the ASX supermarket stock a buy. Its price target is $33.60, which implies that the analysts think the company could rise by approximately 5.3%.

While those wouldn't be huge gains, if Macquarie is right with its forecasts, it could be enough to beat the market over the next 12 months.

Overall, the broker is seemingly confident on Woolworths shares and Coles shares because of their predicted defensive earnings growth.