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CRUDE OIL FUTURES RUN-UP, BUT SO FAR REPULSED BY RESISTANCE

NYMEX crude futures CLc1 jumped as much as 14% on Friday to five-month highs after Israel launched strikes against Iran, sparking Iranian retaliation and raising worries about a disruption in Middle East oil supplies.

With a more than 14% surge for the week, the oil futures are on pace for their biggest weekly rise since October 2022.

That said, traders are watching a resistance zone that includes the Fibonacci-based 233-week moving average $(WMA.AU)$, which now resides around $77.80, the 200-WMA which is around $80.10, and the mid-January high at $80.77, as a potential cap for this rise:

Indeed, CLc1 hit an intraday high of $77.62, which was just shy of the 233-WMA. The futures have since backed away, and are now around $74.00, up more than 8% on the day.

Initial support on the hourly charts is at $70.84 then $69.29. A reversal back below the April 22nd high at $65.09 can suggest prices may cool-down further, with risk back down to the April 9th low at $55.12 and below.

A weekly close above $80.77, however, would suggest potential for a much more significant rise. In that event, the polarity of the 200- and 233- WMAs would flip to support from resistance.

The futures' September 2023 high was at $95.03.

Meanwhile, with a more than 3% jump, the Energy select sector SPDR fund XLE.P is the only S&P 500 index .SPX SPDR fund quoted up in premarket trade.

(Terence Gabriel)

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EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:

EUROPE'S AUTOS MALAISE TO CONTINUE UNTIL OUTLOOK CLEARER CLICK HERE

OIL MOVES SHAKE UP RISK OFF CURRENCIES CLICK HERE

WHERE NEXT FOR OIL PRICES CLICK HERE

AIRLINE STOCKS FALL, ENERGY GAINS CLICK HEREEUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: FUTURES TUMBLE ON ISRAEL'S STRIKE ON IRAN CLICK HERE

(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)