Is the ASX gold rush over? Fundie says 'period of consolidation' has begun

MotleyFool
06-20

ASX gold shares are in the green on Friday while the rest of the market struggles.

The S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) is up 0.076% while the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down 0.25%.

The gold price is currently $US3,351.60 per ounce, down 0.53% today and down 2.42% over the past week.

What's going on with ASX gold shares on Friday?

Here's how the six largest ASX gold shares are performing today:

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are down 0.2% to $20.34.

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) shares are down 0.84% to $7.72.

Newmont Corporate CDI (ASX: NEM) shares are up 0.011% to $89.01.

Genesis Minerals Ltd (ASX: GMD) shares are up 0.89% to $4.55.

Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX: PRU) shares are down 0.28% to $3.55.

Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM) shares are up 2.04% to $10.49.

The gold price has soared over the past 18 months due to its safe-haven appeal amid geopolitical tensions and global trade uncertainties.

Gold has reached new highs again and again over this period.

The gold price hit a record US$3,500.05 per ounce on 22 April.

Since then, it has retreated, and ASX gold shares have gone down with it.

Is the gold rush over? Expert tips 'period of ongoing consolidation' ahead

James Gerrish, a portfolio manager at Shaw and Partners, says his team is bullish on the gold price in the medium to long term.

In his latest Market Matters newsletter, Gerrish notes that the gold price recently rallied as the US dollar declined.

However, the gold price has traded beneath its record high for two months now.

And the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) has fallen 6.75% since 22 April.

Over the same period, Northern Star shares have fallen 11.8% and Evolution Mining shares have dropped 13.1%.

Gerrish says "long gold" is a crowded trade right now.

Going long on gold means taking an investment position that benefits if the gold price rises.

Positions can include buying physical gold, gold futures, or ASX gold stocks.

Gerrish said ASX gold shares have been sold off "aggressively" and the gold rush appears to be paused or at least slowing down.

He commented:

… the aggressive nature of the recent sell-off in ASX gold stocks and the precious metals' inability to punch to fresh highs as the $US dollar falls suggests a period of ongoing consolidation is starting to unfold.

The Market Matters team is still expecting the gold price to reset its April high in the coming weeks or months.

However, the analysts predict the gold price will only rise by up to 4% from here.

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