Barclays analysts raised their price target to $200, highlighting greater optimism about Blackwell and the company’s earnings potential

Barclays analysts raised their price target for Nvidia to $200 on Tuesday.

Nvidia Corp.’s stock could rise another 38%, according to Barclays analysts who raised their price target to $200 on Tuesday after taking an upbeat view of the company’s ramp-up of its Blackwell artificial-intelligence platform. That price target would translate to a $4.9 trillion market capitalization, versus about $3.5 trillion currently.

The analysts said the chip maker “has the most potential upside in our coverage” for the second half of the year. 

Based on an analysis of the supply chain, the Barclays team sees “healthy” utilizations of Nvidia’s Blackwell platform, adding that “the supply chain sounds positive” about the second half of 2025. That is in line with increasing usage of agentic AI, the analysts said, referring to AI software that can complete tasks with little to no prompting by a human.

The new price target at Barclays implies the stock could run up another 38% and reflects both higher earnings expectations for next calendar year as well as a higher valuation multiple in the analysts’ model. 

Nvidia’s stock is up more than 7% so far this year and up about 21% over the past three months.

The analysts had expected Blackwell capacity to reach 40,000 wafers, with about 15 chips per wafer, but checks showed around 30,000 wafers per month in June. Increases of Blackwell capacity are up 30% from a quarter ago, “off the lower base,” the analysts said. Despite that, “faster utilization is more than offsetting, giving us more confidence in October,” the analysts added.

Barclays expects sequential growth for Nvidia’s compute revenue to be at a mid-teens rate in the October and January quarters. Sales to China and of the older Hopper line of chips will be “effectively zero” of that, the analysts added.

Meanwhile, plans for Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell Ultra chips are on track, the analysts said, and a “small volume” of the chips will be part of the supply chain by the end of the current quarter. Mass production of the Ultra chips is set for the third quarter, they added. 

The rollout of Nvidia’s Ultra chips and higher volumes of Blackwell shipments should be a help to Nvidia’s gross margins in the second half of the year, according to the analysts. 

The chip company reported an adjusted gross margin of 61% for the fiscal first quarter in May, which was down from 78.9% the previous year. Even excluding the $4.5 billion charge related to the U.S. government’s ban on the sale of H20 chips to Chinese customers, Nvidia’s adjusted gross margin would have still been down from a year before, to 71.3%. 

However, Jefferies analysts said earlier this month that as “the dominant supplier of AI accelerators” in the data-center industry, the company’s ramp of Blackwell should help its gross margin improve throughout the rest of the year from the low-70% range up to the targeted mid-70% range.