By Rebecca Ungarino

Jefferies investors could be in for a rough Wednesday night. Analysts are expecting the company to post second-quarter profit and revenue that declined from a year earlier after the market closes, as volatility and policy uncertainty gripped markets this spring and threw off dealmaking.

Aside from a window into the health of the company itself, investors tend to view Jefferies' earnings as an early indication of how other banks' results will fare for the quarter. The New York-based firm reports results several weeks earlier than most other Wall Street banks.

The consensus estimate among Wall Street analysts tracked by FactSet calls for the investment-banking firm to report per-share earnings of 44 cents on revenue of $1.56 billion for the second quarter. That would mark declines of 31% and 6%, respectively, from 64 cents and $1.66 billion a year ago.

Compared to last quarter, those results would reflect drops of 23% and 2%, respectively. Analysts expect Jefferies to turn in second-quarter investment banking and capital markets revenues of $1.39 billion and asset management revenues of $152 million.

Investors have punished Jefferies' stock in recent months; it's on track for one of its largest annual declines on record. Shares are down 30% this year, while the S&P 500 has risen 4%. Just 1987, 2008, and 2018 were worse.

The decline stands out among competitors, some of which are also lagging the broader market. Investment banking rivals Moelis and Evercore have posted less dramatic declines in 2025 of 16% and 4%, respectively. Goldman Sachs' stock, meanwhile, is up 16% this year, and larger, more diversified banks with consumer businesses -- such as JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America -- are up 18% and 6%, respectively, in 2025.

Analysts will be looking for comments from Jefferies executives in the company's report -- since management doesn't hold quarterly earnings calls -- about the pipelines for advisory and underwriting work. Morgan Stanley analysts led by Ryan Kenny are watching for how much of an impact the market's volatility in April had on equities-trading revenue.

Commentary from Jefferies management on Wednesday will likely acknowledge "improving deal conditions and a reaffirmation of the firm's long-term growth strategy, as evidenced by recent hiring," Kenny wrote in a note to clients earlier this week. He rates Jefferies' stock with an Equal-Weight rating and boosted his price target to $55 from $41.

Write to Rebecca Ungarino at rebecca.ungarino@barrons.com

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June 25, 2025 12:58 ET (16:58 GMT)

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