By George Glover

Netflix stock has been on a tear, but one of Wall Street's few remaining doubters still says it is significantly overvalued.

Morningstar analyst Matthew Dolgin raised his fair value estimate for the streaming-video company to $750 from $720 in a research note published late Thursday. In theory, that means he has turned a little more bullish, although the new target still implies shares could fall 43% from their current level of just under $1,307.

Netflix is targeting a $1 trillion market cap by 2030. Executives laid out a plan to double revenue from $39 billion last year and earn about $9 billion in global ad sales by 2030 at an annual business review in March, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal that cited people who attended the meeting.

For Dolgin, a 13-figure valuation just isn't achievable. "Those targets will be very difficult to achieve and should not constitute a base-case forecast," he wrote. The analyst said Netflix's crackdown on sharing passwords is no longer a catalyst for the stock, and questioned whether the company will be able to make price hikes stick at home and abroad.

Dolgin added that in a scenario where Netflix did manage to achieve its 2030 profit and sales targets, it would be fairly valued at about $1,225, which would give the company a market capitalization of about $521 billion.

Shares have soared 47% this year, powered higher by excitement about the idea that a pivot to live sports and a surge in ad sales will supercharge earnings. Other entertainment stocks have failed to match those gains -- Disney has climbed 9.1% and NBCUniversal owner Comcast has slipped 6.2% in 2025.

Netflix's stellar gains have prompted a flurry of Wall Street price-target upgrades. Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall raised his price target on the stock to $1,500 from $1,222, and Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak hiked his own target to $1,600 from $1,350 last week.

Barron's named Netflix as a stock pick on May 15, pointing to the attractiveness of the company's "flywheel" model -- a self-sustaining cycle of growth in which more subscribers means more money to spend on content, which in turn attracts even more users. Shares are up 11% since then.

Write to George Glover at george.glover@dowjones.com

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June 27, 2025 07:54 ET (11:54 GMT)

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