Al Root

Tesla stock managed to do something unexpected after the company's long-awaited robo-taxi launch: Nothing.

Shares were oddly stable this past week, making the robo-taxi launch neither a big positive catalyst nor a sell-the-news event. With the robo-taxi launch in the rearview mirror, investors will turn their attention to deliveries, earnings, and the new car.

Shares of the electric vehicle maker rose less than $2, or 0.5%, this past week following the launch of Tesla's robo-taxi service. Bullish investors were impressed that Tesla was able to take fare-paying passengers around Austin, Texas without a driver. Bearish investors pointed out cars' mistakes online and worried that the launch was small and the service difficult to scale. In the end, not much happened to the stock.

Shares were down 0.2% in premarket trading on Monday at $323.15, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively. The shares may be facing some turbulence as the Senate geared up for a battle Monday over final passage of the GOP's spending bill.

The Senate bill would end tax credits for the purchase of electric vehicles after September, quicker than the House proposal's call for eliminating them by the end of the year for most vehicles.

Many of Tesla's customers claim tax credits for EVs, solar panels and home battery systems, and the company benefits from battery-storage tax credits.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk again slammed the legislation as Republicans narrowly advanced the measure in a 51-49 weekend vote. He called the Senate's latest version of the bill "utterly insane and destructive" on social-media platform X. "It gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future," Musk added.

Later this week, stock volatility could increase. On Wednesday, Tesla will report second-quarter deliveries. They won't be good.

Tesla released the consensus number it compiles from some two-dozen Wall Street analysts, who expect about 386,000 vehicles delivered, down about 13% from 444,000 delivered in the second quarter of 2024. The most current estimates, however, are closer to 355,000 units, down 20% year over year.

Estimates for the second quarter of 2025 started at about 500,000 vehicles. They started to fall precipitously after first-quarter deliveries fell 13% year over year.

Second-quarter earnings come a few weeks after deliveries. Wall Street currently expects earnings per share of $44 cents, according to FactSet, down from 52 cents reported in the second quarter of 2024. At the start of 2025, Wall Street expected second-quarter EPS of 85 cents.

Along with earnings, Tesla investors will expect an update on the company's next model, which is due out any day now. "We're still planning to release models this year," said Lars Moravy, Vice President of Vehicle Engineering at Tesla, during the company's first quarter earnings conference call.

Details of the new model, however, have been thin. It's tough to say what Tesla stock will do in reaction to deliveries or earnings. Tesla stock rose 5.3% after reporting disappointing first-quarter deliveries partly because of news that CEO Elon Musk would be spending less time in Washington and more time at Tesla. Shares rose 5.4% after reporting disappointing first-quarter earnings, partly because Tesla stuck to its plan for a June robo-taxi launch.

It might take good news about the new model to see shares rise if deliveries and earnings disappoint again.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

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June 30, 2025 04:44 ET (08:44 GMT)

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