EMERGING MARKETS-FX firm, stocks mixed as investors monitor US trade progress

Reuters
06-30
EMERGING MARKETS-FX firm, stocks mixed as investors monitor US trade progress

Investors eye Trump's tax cut bill, hope for trade deals

South African rand surged over 5.5% so far this year

Israel's shekel set for best quarterly performance

MSCI EM FX off 0.2%, stocks down 0.6%

By Purvi Agarwal

June 30 (Reuters) - Most emerging market currencies strengthened against a falling dollar on Monday, while regional equity indexes were mixed as investors awaited progress on trade talks with the U.S. as the July tariff deadline loomed.

The dollar index =USD traded around multi-year lows as investors expected a dovish tilt from the Federal Reserve and increasing chances that President Donald Trump's tax cut bill - which is expected to add to the already high U.S. fiscal debt - will be signed into law.

"The dollar struggled to gain traction with its long-term downtrend intact, signalling more weakness ahead," said analysts at LMAX Group.

Investors are also awaiting any trade deals out of the U.S., as a July deadline for tariffs looms, and as Canada and the U.S. were set to resume trade talks which were stalled briefly.

Currencies in emerging Europe were subdued against an advancing euro. The Hungarian forint EURHUF= was set for its best six-month performance since June 2023, while the Polish zloty EURPLN= was set to snap a three-quarter winning streak.

"Market conditions remain supportive for CEE FX, with a weaker dollar leading the way... the global story (tariffs) may introduce some noise, but the risk bias remains toward a softer US dollar, which should continue to support CEE currencies," said analysts at ING.

Budapest .BUX stocks eyed a ninth quarter of gains, their longest winning streak since 2004. Equities in Poland .WIG20, up 0.5%, were on track for their sixth month of gains.

In the Middle East, Israel's shekel ILS= was set for its best quarterly performance on record, while Israeli stocks .TA125 looked set for their best quarterly percentage gains since October 2003.

South Africa's rand ZAR= has surged over 5.5% so far this year, after logging declines for the last five years. Its stocks .JTOPI were set for a sixth month of gains, up 0.6% on Monday.

Emerging market assets have had a good year so far, as investors looked to move out of U.S. assets due to uncertainty driven by Trump's tariffs and concerns over its mounting fiscal debt.

MSCI's index tracking global EM currencies .MIEM00000CUS was set for its sixth month of gains. It has risen 7% so far this year, already more than it has climbed in any year since 2017.

The stocks gauge .MSCIEF slipped 0.6% on the day.

Most markets rounded off last week with gains after a truce between Iran and Israel helped calm some jitters over oil supply disruption in the Middle East.

This week, all eyes will be on the jobs data out of the U.S., with the all-important non-farm payrolls on Friday.

Taiwan's dollar TWD=TP fell 2.5% against the greenback, to its lowest level since early June, with traders pointing to an aggressive intervention by the central bank to sell the Taiwan dollar at the end of the second quarter.

HIGHLIGHTS:

** China's weak factory activity maintains pressure for more stimulus as tariff risks weigh

** Hungary central bank keeps countercyclical capital buffer steady for banks

** Turkey's unemployment rate falls to 8.4% in May

For TOP NEWS across emerging markets nTOPEMRG

For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see CEE/

For TURKISH market report, see .IS

For RUSSIAN market report, see RU/RUB

(Reporting by Purvi Agarwal in BengaluruEditing by Bernadette Baum)

((Purvi.Agarwal@thomsonreuters.com;))

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