AI需求是否足以证明基础设施投资的合理性？

英为财情

2025/06/29

Investing.com - OpenAI、微软(NASDAQ:MSFT)、Meta(NASDAQ:META)和Google(NASDAQ:GOOGL)快速构建AI基础设施的行动引发了质疑：需求是否足够强劲，能否证明2025年预计超过4000亿美元的AI资本支出合理性——以及行业是否面临过度建设的风险。瑞银(UBS)分析师确定了AI需求的三大支柱——模型训练、面向消费者的推理和企业应用。该...

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OpenAI、微软(NASDAQ:MSFT)、Meta(NASDAQ:META)和Google(NASDAQ:GOOGL)快速构建AI基础设施的行动引发了质疑：需求是否足够强劲，能否证明2025年预计超过4000亿美元的AI资本支出合理性——以及行业是否面临过度建设的风险。\n瑞银(UBS)分析师确定了AI需求的三大支柱——模型训练、面向消费者的推理和企业应用。\n该...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2864895\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"investing_news","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI需求是否足以证明基础设施投资的合理性？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI需求是否足以证明基础设施投资的合理性？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-06-29 18:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2864895><strong>英为财情</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investing.com - OpenAI、微软(NASDAQ:MSFT)、Meta(NASDAQ:META)和Google(NASDAQ:GOOGL)快速构建AI基础设施的行动引发了质疑：需求是否足够强劲，能否证明2025年预计超过4000亿美元的AI资本支出合理性——以及行业是否面临过度建设的风险。\n瑞银(UBS)分析师确定了AI需求的三大支柱——模型训练、面向消费者的推理和企业应用。\n该...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2864895\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SNOW","symbol_name":"Snowflake","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2864895","article_id":"2547708679","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"investing_news","url":"https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2864895","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2547708679","pubTimestamp":1751193000,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"investing_news","name":"英为财情新闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Investing.com - OpenAI、微软、Meta和Google快速构建AI基础设施的行动引发了质疑：需求是否足够强劲，能否证明2025年预计超过4000亿美元的AI资本支出合理性——以及行业是否面临过度建设的风险。瑞银分析师确定了AI需求的三大支柱——模型训练、面向消费者的推理和企业应用。\"我们认为模型训练需求将继续显著增长，\"瑞银写道，并引用了OpenAI与Oracle Financial Software和CoreWeave扩大的合作协议，以及微软持续的基础设施投资。尽管如此，瑞银仍持建设性态度。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"investing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"SNOW":"Snowflake","UBS":"瑞银","TSYW.SI":"TESLA 3xLongSG261006","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","NVDU":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-Direxion","GOOGL":"谷歌A","ANET":"Arista Networks, Inc.","LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","LU0265550359.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1121112475.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (USDHDG) ACC","NVD2.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","LU2506952170.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"CRH\" (USDHDG) INC","NVIW.SI":"NVDA 3xLongSG261006","PWR":"广达公司","NVDX":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-T-Rex","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","NVD":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","3NVD.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","NVDY":"NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","MSFT":"微软","USJW.SI":"ALPHAB 3xLongSG261006","NVDD":"1倍做空NVDA ETF-Direxion","2NVD.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SNVD.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","CIEN":"Ciena科技","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NVDA":"英伟达","NVD3.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","NOW":"ServiceNow","USAW.SI":"AMZN 3xLongSG261006","NVDS.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","FB":"ProShares S&P 500 Dynamic Buffer ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","NVDS":"1.5倍做空NVDA ETF-Tradr"},"translate_title":"Is AI demand sufficient to justify infrastructure investment?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SNVD.UK":0.6,"SNOW":1,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"ANET":1,"NVDD":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"PWR":1,"NVDX":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"MSFT":1,"MNQmain":0.6,"USJW.SI":0.6,"META":1,"GOOGL":1,"SQQQ":0.6,"TSYW.SI":0.6,"FB":0.75,"NQmain":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDA":1,"03145":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NOW":1,"PSQ":0.6,"USAW.SI":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"UBS":1,"CIEN":1,"QID":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6},"content_text":"Investing.com - OpenAI、微软(NASDAQ:MSFT)、Meta(NASDAQ:META)和Google(NASDAQ:GOOGL)快速构建AI基础设施的行动引发了质疑：需求是否足够强劲，能否证明2025年预计超过4000亿美元的AI资本支出合理性——以及行业是否面临过度建设的风险。\n瑞银(UBS)分析师确定了AI需求的三大支柱——模型训练、面向消费者的推理和企业应用。\n该银行认为前两个领域将持续保持增长势头。\"我们认为模型训练需求将继续显著增长，\"瑞银写道，并引用了OpenAI与Oracle Financial Software(NYSE:ORCL)和CoreWeave扩大的合作协议，以及微软持续的基础设施投资。\n消费者需求同样强劲，ChatGPT的每周活跃用户超过6亿，竞争对手也在同步扩张。\n\"我们认为在短期内，GPU需求仍然主要由消费者驱动，\"报告指出。\n但企业领域仍是薄弱环节。瑞银发现，大多数大型企业仍处于概念验证阶段，受到治理挑战、投资回报率(ROI)不明确以及对定制应用的偏好等因素的影响而进展缓慢。\n报告指出：\"公共软件应用公司从AI获得的收入一直很有限，\"并补充说，目前只有14%的大型公司正在大规模部署AI。\n价格下跌和来自初创企业的竞争加剧进一步限制了现有软件供应商的盈利能力。\n尽管如此，瑞银仍持建设性态度。该行预测，从2026年及以后，将逐渐从消费者和模型训练需求转向企业驱动的增长。\n该银行表示，主要风险是早期需求引擎在企业采用加速之前就冷却下来的情况——这一结果被视为\"非零但可控\"。\n在此之前，AI需求故事继续依赖于模型训练和消费者推理。分析师认为，这种需求将继续支持GPU的高需求，进而推动云基础设施、内存和网络硬件的更广泛投资。\n在投资方面，瑞银对Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA)保持看好态度，并强调博通(NASDAQ:AVGO)是计算和网络需求增长的另一个关键一级受益者。\n美光科技(NASDAQ:MU)也被视为与内存需求相关的周边受益者。在全球芯片制造商中，台积电(NYSE:TSM)因其在AI供应链中的地位而受到青睐。\n在软件领域，瑞银更偏好基础设施和数据为重点的公司，如Oracle Financial Software和Snowflake(NYSE:SNOW)，而非传统SaaS公司，尽管ServiceNow(NYSE:NOW)在大型同行中被认为处于更有利的位置。\n在美国互联网领域，Meta预计将从Meta AI等面向消费者的工具和其广告商平台Advantage+中受益。\n硬件公司如Arista Networks(NYSE:ANET)、 Ciena (NYSE:CIEN)、 Quanta Services  Inc(NYSE:PWR)和 Wistron Corp (TW:3231)也被视为高度暴露于持续的AI投资周期。\n瑞银的报告还强调，AI工作负载的计算强度持续增加。即使每百万标记的成本下降——从2023年的115美元降至2027年预计的2美元——由于模型日益复杂和上下文窗口更长，处理能力的需求正在迅速扩大。\n结果是AI加速器市场预计将从2024年的1250亿美元激增至2027年的超过3000亿美元。\n同时，主权AI计划和公私合作伙伴关系正成为额外的需求催化剂。德克萨斯州的Stargate AI工厂、OpenAI的多云方法以及阿布扎比提议的基础设施建设都表明对AI资本支出的长期结构性支持。\n虽然许多大型企业仍在应对数据准备和集成障碍，但瑞银指出，超过60%的受访公司至少有某种程度的AI部署。\n然而，只有14%的公司报告在生产中大规模运行AI应用程序——这一数字在最近几个季度几乎没有变化。\n本文由人工智能协助翻译。更多信息，请参见我们的使用条款。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}