If you want to compound wealth in the stock market, you can do so by buying an index fund. But one can do better than that by picking better than average stocks (as part of a diversified portfolio). For example, the Fraser and Neave, Limited (SGX:F99) share price is up 24% in the last 1 year, clearly besting the market return of around 17% (not including dividends). That's a solid performance by our standards! Unfortunately the longer term returns are not so good, with the stock falling 2.3% in the last three years.
After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.
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While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Fraser and Neave was able to grow EPS by 1.7% in the last twelve months. The share price gain of 24% certainly outpaced the EPS growth. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it a year ago.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. This free interactive report on Fraser and Neave's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Fraser and Neave's TSR for the last 1 year was 29%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
It's good to see that Fraser and Neave has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 29% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 3%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Fraser and Neave has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Singaporean exchanges.
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