Joe Light
A group of Republican lawmakers is threatening to sink President Donald Trump's signature tax and spending legislation, which could come up for a vote in the House of Representatives as soon as today. Despite grumblings from lawmakers, the finish line is in sight.
GOP leadership says it plans as soon as Wednesday to vote on the bill, which extends the 2017 tax cuts originally passed during Trump's first term, among other provisions. The Senate passed the bill on Tuesday with Vice President JD Vance casting the tiebreaking vote.
There are a number of hurdles to overcome first.
Bad weather across the country could end up delaying the vote. The House is being called back from recess to vote, and some GOP lawmakers have had flights canceled, delaying their return. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R., La.) has acknowledged that the weather issues could delay the vote until Thursday.
The bigger issue is that a handful of fiscal conservatives and GOP moderates have already said they're opposed to the Senate version of the bill. Since the House's own version of the megabill only passed in May by a one-vote margin, any lawmaker can in effect kill the bill if the other votes stay the same.
On tax cuts, the Senate increased the cap on state and local tax deductions to $40,000 from $10,000 -- the same as the House -- but reinstated the cap to $10,000 in 2030. The Senate also made permanent tax breaks for research and development, business interest, and some investments that the House had set to expire in 2029, but limited the tax breaks for tips and overtime, a major Trump campaign promise.
On the spending side, the Senate bill would put in place a 3.5% cap on so-called provider taxes that states use to finance their Medicaid programs, a move that some GOP moderates fear could throw hundreds of thousands of people off healthcare and hurt rural hospitals. The Senate also slowed the phaseout of some green-energy tax breaks originally created by President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act.
Overall, the Senate bill would add about $3.3 trillion to the federal debt over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office, compared with the $2.8 trillion that the House version was projected to add.
Some House lawmakers say they're unhappy about the changes.
"We need to ensure good policy isn't poisoned by bad spending. Congress should prioritize fiscal responsibility, transparency, and results. NOT rushed deals," wrote Rep. Ralph Norman (R., S.C.) in an X post on Tuesday.
Rep. Chip Roy (R., Texas) on X called a slower phaseout of some green-energy credits a "deal-killer" and other GOP lawmakers, including Reps. Andy Ogles (R., Tenn.) and Marlin Stutzman (R., Ind.), suggested working through Independence Day to strike a different deal.
Despite the narrow margin, GOP lawmakers have found it near impossible to break with Trump in the past. The president has threatened to support primary challenges against lawmakers who oppose him.
"We can have all of this right now, but only if the House GOP UNITES, ignores its occasional "GRANDSTANDERS" (You know who you are!), and does the right thing, which is sending this Bill to my desk," wrote Trump in a post on Truth Social in Tuesday.
If past is prologue, the intense pressure from Trump might mean that the noise coming from frustrated lawmakers doesn't amount to anything.
"We expect House GOP lawmakers to come around on the Senate-passed bill once they are faced with a vote," wrote analysts for Beacon Policy Advisors in a research note on Tuesday. "Stopping the president's agenda in its tracks or sending the bill back to the Senate for additional votes, delaying the process, is likely a bridge too far for a critical mass of House GOP members."
Write to Joe Light at joe.light@barrons.com
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July 02, 2025 10:33 ET (14:33 GMT)
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