BlockBeats News, July 2nd, Standard Chartered Bank predicted in its latest released H2 2025 Outlook report that the price of Bitcoin would reach $135,000 by the end of September and reaffirmed its year-end target price of $200,000 (almost double the current price of $107,800 as of July 3rd). Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's Director of Digital Assets Research, pointed out that a combination of three factors, including spot ETF inflows, corporate treasury demand growth, and favorable policies, will drive Bitcoin to achieve its strongest ever USD-priced surge in the second half of 2025.

"Although MicroStrategy's recent pace of accumulation has slowed, the second-quarter rush of non-MicroStrategy institutions indicates that newcomers are sufficient to fill the demand gap in the third quarter," wrote Geoffrey Kendrick in the report. "We expect the overall Bitcoin purchases by corporate treasuries in the third quarter to surpass the second quarter, leading to sustained inflows."

Standard Chartered Bank believes that the current Bitcoin price trend is driven by institutional demand rather than the supply tightening logic seen in past halving cycles. Historical data shows that Bitcoin peaked and retraced after 526 days and 547 days following the previous halvings, but Geoffrey Kendrick pointed out that new capital channels such as ETFs and corporate treasuries (which did not exist in prior cycles) have broken this pattern. He expects that the selling pressure from long-term holders will be weaker than in 2025, and continuous inflows will be sufficient to absorb any profit-taking.

Furthermore, Geoffrey Kendrick particularly emphasized the importance of the 10-year Treasury yield spread indicator — since early 2024, the Bitcoin price trend has been highly synchronized with this indicator, and Standard Chartered expects the yield spread to continue rising.