BlockBeats News, July 3rd, HTX Researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) pointed out in the DeepThink column that recently Bitcoin surged to $109,500, mainly driven by a 10% increase in the futures market open interest (OI) to $3.2 billion, with a significant inflow of long funds, revitalizing market momentum.
On a macro level, the U.S. "mini non-farm" ADP data unexpectedly decreased (-33,000), pushing the July rate cut probability to 27.4%, and the 25BP rate cut probability in September to 64%-72%. The options market Put/Call ratio rose to 0.72, with $104,000 as a key support level and $114,000 as a short-term resistance.
Chloe pointed out that the market is currently playing out two scenarios: if the non-farm data continues to be weak, it may trigger a new round of Bitcoin rally; conversely, if the data is strong, it may lead to a technical pullback. The current market is in a sensitive period of directional selection.
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