美元疲软对美国意味着什么？

英为财情

2025/07/06

Investing.com - 摩根士丹利策略师在最近的一份报告中表示，美元近期的下跌"仅是中场休息，而非终局"。 "我们认为欧元/美元达到1.17并非终点，而更接近于中场休息，"他们写道，预计美元将继续走弱直至2027年。该银行认为，美元贬值在短期内对美国整体经济的影响将相对温和。他们的模型显示，美元下跌1%大约会使整体CPI和GDP同时上升5个基点。由David S. Adams领导的...

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Adams领导的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cn.investing.com/news/forex-news/article-2873699\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"investing_news","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美元疲软对美国意味着什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美元疲软对美国意味着什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-07-06 17:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://cn.investing.com/news/forex-news/article-2873699><strong>英为财情</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investing.com - 摩根士丹利策略师在最近的一份报告中表示，美元近期的下跌\"仅是中场休息，而非终局\"。\n\"我们认为欧元/美元达到1.17并非终点，而更接近于中场休息，\"他们写道，预计美元将继续走弱直至2027年。\n该银行认为，美元贬值在短期内对美国整体经济的影响将相对温和。他们的模型显示，美元下跌1%大约会使整体CPI和GDP同时上升5个基点。\n由David S. Adams领导的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cn.investing.com/news/forex-news/article-2873699\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0157215616.USD","symbol_name":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://cn.investing.com/news/forex-news/article-2873699","article_id":"2549518376","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"investing_news","url":"https://cn.investing.com/news/forex-news/article-2873699","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2549518376","pubTimestamp":1751794500,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"investing_news","name":"英为财情新闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Investing.com - 摩根士丹利策略师在最近的一份报告中表示，美元近期的下跌\"仅是中场休息，而非终局\"。该银行认为，美元贬值在短期内对美国整体经济的影响将相对温和。他们的模型显示，美元下跌1%大约会使整体CPI和GDP同时上升5个基点。美元走弱对那些在海外产生大量收入的跨国公司来说是一个有利因素。这可能进一步减少对美元的需求并强化其下跌趋势。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"investing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU0157215616.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" INC","XOM":"埃克森美孚","CRM":"赛富时","LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1989763005.USD":"东方汇理教育基金A2 Acc","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1564329461.SGD":"Blackrock Dynamic High Income A6 SGD-H","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (mth) SGD-H","LU1066051811.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","LU2361044949.HKD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0472753341.HKD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU2462157665.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2065169927.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2168564222.USD":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU1043141396.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4538":"云计算","PG":"宝洁","LU2404859741.USD":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY FUND \"R\" (USD) INC","LU1929549753.HKD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU1236620834.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE LONG TERM DIVIDEND \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","SGXZ31699556.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"C\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1989773731.SGD":"CPR Invest - Education A2 Acc SGD-H","LU0792757196.USD":"TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业","LU0690374615.EUR":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (EUR) ACC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","LU1732800096.USD":"摩根大通环球收益基金A (irc)","MSFT":"微软","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","MA":"万事达","LU0994945656.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (USD) INC 2","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU2462611646.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS REAL ASSETS TARGET INCOME \"A2\" (USD) INC MTI","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU2298321311.HKD":"BGF CIRCULAR ECONOMY \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU0368265418.SGD":"Blackrock World Energy Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0788109477.HKD":"BGF GLOBAL ALLOCATION \"A2\" (HKDHGD) ACC","LU0965509283.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (SGDHDG) INC"},"translate_title":"What Does a Weak Dollar Mean for the United States?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"XOM":1,"CRM":1,"MA":1,"MSFT":1,"PG":1},"content_text":"Investing.com - 摩根士丹利策略师在最近的一份报告中表示，美元近期的下跌\"仅是中场休息，而非终局\"。\n\"我们认为欧元/美元达到1.17并非终点，而更接近于中场休息，\"他们写道，预计美元将继续走弱直至2027年。\n该银行认为，美元贬值在短期内对美国整体经济的影响将相对温和。他们的模型显示，美元下跌1%大约会使整体CPI和GDP同时上升5个基点。\n由David S. Adams领导的策略师团队写道：\"我们预计近期的汇率贬值不会对宏观经济产生显著的整体影响，\"他们指出，与其他国家相比，美国经济相对封闭，对货币驱动的贸易冲击敏感度较低。\n通胀压力预计主要将在未来六个月内显现，该银行预测在未来一年内整体CPI将上升约20个基点。核心通胀则被认为基本不受影响。\n然而，对美国企业的影响则更为显著。美元走弱对那些在海外产生大量收入的跨国公司来说是一个有利因素。这些公司在将海外收益兑换回美元时能够从货币转换效应中受益。\n\"我们认为美元走弱是美国跨国公司盈利的一个重要但被低估的有利因素，\"该团队表示。\n具有全球业务的大型企业，特别是在科技、材料和工业等板块的公司，将获得最大收益。\n该银行筛选了外国收入占比超过15%且被其分析师评为\"增持\"的高质量股票，在能源、医疗保健、金融和科技等多个行业中确定了几只大盘股。\n这些股票包括微软(NASDAQ:MSFT)、Salesforce(NYSE:CRM)、埃克森美孚(NYSE:XOM)、宝洁公司(NYSE:PG)和万事达(NYSE:MA)等。\n策略师们指出，当前的外汇动态也可能影响企业的对冲交易行为。他们指出，企业往往在美元走强期间增加对冲比率，但随着美元走软，可能会减少对冲。这可能进一步减少对美元的需求并强化其下跌趋势。\n\"美元仍处于历史区间的上端，对冲交易和指数再平衡带来的顺周期性是重要的放大因素，\"报告指出。\n此外，该报告还指出了结构性影响。随着美元走弱，美国在全球债券和股票指数中的份额可能下降，这可能导致流入美国资产的被动资金减少。\n尽管美联储预计不会因美元走弱而显著改变其货币政策立场，但摩根士丹利认为，随着时间推移，美联储将逐渐转向更加温和的立场。\n不过，单凭美元贬值并不被视为促使政策立即改变的催化剂，特别是考虑到其对核心通胀的传导效应有限。\n本文由人工智能协助翻译。更多信息，请参见我们的使用条款。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}