Frontier Group (ULCC) will need to show "strong" improvement in Q3 revenue per available seat mile, or RASM growth, for investors to get confident in its profit in H2, UBS said in a note to clients on Monday.

UBS said it expects the company to report Q2 earnings in line with its outlook, adding that it is modeling a 1.2% rise in RASM in Q2. The investment bank estimated a Q2 loss of $0.28 per share.

While the market expects to see Frontier Group record modest losses in Q3 before turning to a profit in Q4, the expectation is that the company's Q3 losses will be moderately relative to Q2, the note said.

For 2025, UBS estimated Frontier Group's loss to be $0.33 per share, but added that by H1 2026, its initiatives towards profitability should begin contributing more as they ramp up.

UBS maintained its neutral rating on the stock but raised its price target to $4 from $3.50.

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