When you buy a stock there is always a possibility that it could drop 100%. But on the bright side, you can make far more than 100% on a really good stock. For instance, the price of The Brink's Company (NYSE:BCO) stock is up an impressive 133% over the last five years. In more good news, the share price has risen 14% in thirty days.
The past week has proven to be lucrative for Brink's investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's five-year performance.
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There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During five years of share price growth, Brink's achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 64% per year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 18% over the same period. So one could conclude that the broader market has become more cautious towards the stock.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We know that Brink's has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Brink's the TSR over the last 5 years was 148%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
Investors in Brink's had a tough year, with a total loss of 6.6% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 16%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 20%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Brink's better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Brink's is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
We will like Brink's better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
Discover if Brink's might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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