MW Buy this stock if you want copper exposure, analyst says

By Tomi Kilgore

J.P. Morgan's price target for Freeport-McMoRan's stock implies more than 20% upside and would represent a 14-year closing high

President Trump's proposed 50% tariff on copper imports would likely prove a boon for companies that mine copper in the U.S. So the question for investors is: Which stock should they buy to take advantage?

J.P. Morgan analyst William Peterson wrote in a Wednesday note that Arizona-based Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s stock (FCX) is his "top pick," and should be a "core holding" for those seeking copper exposure.

Peterson just set a new $56 price target on the shares, which implies about 23% upside from current levels. A close at the target price would also be the stock's highest since July 2011.

He believes U.S. trade policy will remain a "major swing factor" for companies with regional exposure, and even more so if higher-than-expected 50% copper tariffs kick in.

That's a big reason why the stock is Peterson's top pick: Freeport-McMoRan has outsize U.S. exposure relative to its global peers.

The company's revenue from U.S. copper mines, excluding adjustments, was $1.41 billion in the first quarter, compared with $1.2 billion from South America operations and $1.26 billion from Indonesia operations.

Meanwhile, Freeport-McMoRan shares rose as much as 1.6% early Wednesday before reversing into the red. They were down 1.5% in midday trading, after rallying 2.5% on Tuesday to close at an eight-month high.

Copper futures (HG00) also reversed course Wednesday, turning a 0.7% early gain into a 4.2% decline - albeit after a 13.1% surge on Tuesday to a record high, according to FactSet data.

J.P. Morgan's Peterson said investors shouldn't worry about the weakness, and should view it as an opportunity. "We'd be buyers on any technical pullback in copper equities," he wrote.

Among other companies in the copper business that Peterson is bullish on are Ivanhoe Electric Inc. (IE) and Teck Resources Ltd. $(TECK)$.

Freeport-McMoRan is slated to report second-quarter results on July 23. Analysts surveyed by FactSet, on average, expect revenue to rise 19.9% to $7.19 billion, and earnings per share to rise to 46 cents from 40 cents. Peterson expects EPS of 48 cents.

The stock has rallied 19.7% in 2025, while copper futures have soared 35.3% and the S&P 500 index SPX has gained 6.1%.

-Tomi Kilgore

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July 09, 2025 12:32 ET (16:32 GMT)

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