Gas stockpiles 6% more than normal levels and rising
Output on track for record high in July
LNG export feedgas rising toward April monthly record high
By Scott DiSavino
July 10 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Thursday on rising gas flows to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants and forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather and more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) were up 4.7 cents, or 1.5%, to $3.261 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:54 a.m. EDT (1254 GMT). On Wednesday, the contract closed at its lowest price since May 28.
A federal storage report on Thursday is expected to show energy firms injected more gas into storage than normal last week for the 11th time in 12 weeks due to near-record production and low LNG export feedgas over the past few months.
Analysts forecast energy firms added 58 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended July 4.
That compares with an increase of 61 bcf during the same week last year and an average of 53 bcf over the past five years (2020-2024). EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
If correct, that build would leave gas stockpiles about 6% above the five-year normal for this time of year.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 106.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from a monthly record high of 106.4 bcfd in June.
But on a daily basis, output has fallen by around 2.4 bcfd over six days to a four-week low of 105.1 bcfd on Wednesday. That daily output decline, however, was smaller than previously expected.
Meteorologists forecast weather across the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through at least July 25.
With hotter weather expected, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 107.3 bcfd this week to 108.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 15.6 bcfd so far in July as liquefaction units at some plants slowly exited maintenance reductions and unexpected outages. That was up from 14.3 bcfd in June and 15.0 bcfd in May, but remained below the monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.
On a daily basis, however, LNG export feedgas was on track to rise to a 10-week high of 16.0 bcfd on Thursday with flows to U.S. energy company Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant in operation and under construction in Texas expected to rise from 1.5 bcfd on Wednesday to 2.2 bcfd on Thursday, according to LSEG data.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading around $12 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and $13 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Week ended Jul 4 Forecast | Week ended Jun 27 Actual | Year ago Jul 4 | Five-year average Jul 4 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +58 | +55 | +61 | +53 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,011 | 2,953 | 3,190 | 2,833 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +6.3% | +6.2% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.24 | 3.22 | 2.21 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 12.06 | 11.81 | 10.32 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 13.12 | 13.12 | 12.32 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 238 | 242 | 238 | 211 | 201 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 240 | 244 | 240 | 214 | 205 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 107.5 | 106.4 | 106.0 | 103.2 | 97.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.2 | 8.3 | 7.8 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 115.7 | 114.7 | 113.9 | N/A | 105.7 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.1 | 7.0 | 6.5 | N/A | 6.4 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 14.9 | 15.2 | 15.4 | 11.5 | 10.0 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.7 |
U.S. Residential | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
U.S. Power Plant | 44.9 | 45.5 | 47.1 | 50.2 | 48.1 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.2 | 22.2 | 22.2 | 21.8 | 21.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.4 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 3.3 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 82.8 | 83.1 | 84.8 | 87.3 | 86.9 |
Total U.S. Demand | 106.7 | 107.3 | 108.8 | N/A | 99.2 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 76 | 76 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 78 | 78 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 79 | 79 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jul 11 | Week ended Jul 4 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 5 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
44 | 43 | 42 | 41 | 38 | |
Coal | 20 | 19 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 17 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.08 | 3.20 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.76 | 2.91 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.46 | 3.55 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.53 | 2.70 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.88 | 2.99 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.87 | 3.12 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 4.29 | 4.42 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.74 | 1.96 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.82 | 0.81 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 48.93 | 66.15 | |||
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 59.09 | 73.90 | |||
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 56.33 | 56.39 | |||
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 64.66 | 65.14 | |||
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 48.79 | 48.67 |
text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminalFor graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.htmlFor next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NGFor next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWRFor U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLLFor U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFCFor U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGASFor the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWERTo determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565BNYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))
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