伯恩斯坦分析特朗普政策法案对消费者和零售商的影响

英为财情

2025/07/13

Investing.com - 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普上周签署的大规模减税和支出法案包含了一些条款，这些条款将导致数千万美国人使用的食品援助计划面临大幅削减。该法案可能会特别影响补充营养援助计划（SNAP），该计划的联邦预算在2025至2034财年期间将累计削减1860亿美元。扣除约600亿美元的行政成本和从联邦转移到州级的福利，实际削减额约为1300亿美元。分析师指出，这种削减很可能主要通过...

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美国总统唐纳德·特朗普上周签署的大规模减税和支出法案包含了一些条款，这些条款将导致数千万美国人使用的食品援助计划面临大幅削减。\n该法案可能会特别影响补充营养援助计划（SNAP），该计划的联邦预算在2025至2034财年期间将累计削减1860亿美元。\n扣除约600亿美元的行政成本和从联邦转移到州级的福利，实际削减额约为1300亿美元。分析师指出，这种削减很可能主要通过...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2883057\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"investing_news","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伯恩斯坦分析特朗普政策法案对消费者和零售商的影响</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伯恩斯坦分析特朗普政策法案对消费者和零售商的影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-07-13 18:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2883057><strong>英为财情</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investing.com - 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普上周签署的大规模减税和支出法案包含了一些条款，这些条款将导致数千万美国人使用的食品援助计划面临大幅削减。\n该法案可能会特别影响补充营养援助计划（SNAP），该计划的联邦预算在2025至2034财年期间将累计削减1860亿美元。\n扣除约600亿美元的行政成本和从联邦转移到州级的福利，实际削减额约为1300亿美元。分析师指出，这种削减很可能主要通过...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2883057\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2097829019.USD","symbol_name":"AZ EQUITY - BORLETTI GLOBAL LIFESTYLE \"AI\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2883057","article_id":"2551694471","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"investing_news","url":"https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-2883057","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2551694471","pubTimestamp":1752400800,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"investing_news","name":"英为财情新闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Investing.com - 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普上周签署的大规模减税和支出法案包含了一些条款，这些条款将导致数千万美国人使用的食品援助计划面临大幅削减。该法案可能会特别影响补充营养援助计划，该计划的联邦预算在2025至2034财年期间将累计削减1860亿美元。伯恩斯坦的分析师在给客户的一份报告中表示，对大多数收入水平而言，这些削减的净影响将是\"积极的\"，尤其是在短期内，\"因为前期的税收优惠超过了后期SNAP和其他预算削减的影响。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"investing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU2097829019.USD":"AZ EQUITY - 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Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU2430703251.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (USD) INC","LU0006061336.USD":"Blackrock US Small and MidCap Opportunities A2 USD","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU1035773651.USD":"AB SICAV I - GLOBAL VALUE PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU2430703095.HKD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (HKD) INC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","WMT":"沃尔玛","LU2430703178.SGD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (SGDHDG) INC"},"translate_title":"Bernstein analyzes impact of Trump's policy bill on consumers and retailers","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DG":1,"WMT":1,"TGT":1,"DLTR":1},"content_text":"Investing.com - 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普上周签署的大规模减税和支出法案包含了一些条款，这些条款将导致数千万美国人使用的食品援助计划面临大幅削减。\n该法案可能会特别影响补充营养援助计划（SNAP），该计划的联邦预算在2025至2034财年期间将累计削减1860亿美元。\n扣除约600亿美元的行政成本和从联邦转移到州级的福利，实际削减额约为1300亿美元。分析师指出，这种削减很可能主要通过延长SNAP福利的工作要求来实现，这将减少符合该计划资格的人数。\n伯恩斯坦的分析师在给客户的一份报告中表示，对大多数收入水平而言，这些削减的净影响将是\"积极的\"，尤其是在短期内，\"因为前期的税收优惠超过了后期SNAP和其他预算削减的影响。\"\n引用沃顿预算模型的数据，分析师指出，到2027年，最高五分之一收入群体的收入可能增加2.1%至3.5%，到2033年可能增加0.5%至2.7%。然而，最低五分之一收入群体在两年内可能会经历1%的收入下滑，到2033年可能面临高达7.5%的负面影响。\n与此同时，伯恩斯坦分析师预测，对零售商而言，SNAP削减的直接影响将是\"有限的\"，并补充说这些变化平均每年将转化为约5-15个基点的可比销售逆风。\n分析师表示，折扣零售商，如Dollar General (NYSE:DG)和Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR)，可能受到的影响最大，因为税收优惠使中高收入消费者（他们最近因广泛的经济不确定性而寻找优惠）更愿意选择价格更高的商品。\n同时，他们表示，低收入消费者可能会面临更大的压力，这进一步给折扣零售商带来挑战。\n\"我们继续看到Dollar General在短期内有更多上升空间，但对其中期轨迹的信心较低，因为明年可能会出现消费降级趋势的逆转，\"分析师表示。\n与此同时，他们认为，在这种背景下，沃尔玛 (NYSE:WMT)和塔吉特 (NYSE:TGT)等大型连锁店预计将受益。分析师表示，沃尔玛有望获得市场份额增长，这得益于其改善的店内和在线购物体验，而塔吉特的销售增长可能会经历一些顺风。\n伯恩斯坦给予沃尔玛和Dollar General\"跑赢大盘\"评级，而Dollar Tree被评为\"与大盘持平\"，塔吉特则为\"跑输大盘\"。\n本文由人工智能协助翻译。更多信息，请参见我们的使用条款。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}