Why Unity Software Stock Keeps Going Up

Motley Fool
07/17
  • Four separate analysts have recommended buying Unity Software stock in the last 24 hours.
  • Morgan Stanley has the most interesting advice, recommending the stock, but seemingly at a price substantially lower than it costs today.
  • Unity stock really is quite expensive for its growth forecast.

More and more analysts are unifying behind a bull thesis on Unity Software (U 8.34%). Shares of the graphics software company rocketed 14% yesterday after Jefferies raised its price target to $35.

Today, three more analysts are chiming in on Unity -- and the stock is up 10.8% through 9:55 a.m. ET.

Image source: Getty Images.

Valuing Unity stock

In a trio of notes this morning, UBS raised its price target on Unity stock to $33, with a neutral rating; Wedbush raised its price target to $39 with an outperform recommendation; and Morgan Stanley ended with a good news/bad news note:

Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Cost writes today on The Fly that he's seeing "marked improvement" with Unity Ads sales up 15% to 20%. Unity has "produced a fundamentally more competitive ad product," says Cost, that's translating into tremendous sales growth.

NYSE" fifty_two_week_high="38.95" fifty_two_week_low="13.89" gross_margin="74.83" logo="https://g.foolcdn.com/art/companylogos/mark/U.png" market_cap="$14B" pe_ratio="-30.19" percent_change="8.34" symbol="U" volume="1,922,535">

Is Unity stock a buy?

But here's the weird part: Cost gives Unity stock an overweight rating, but only a $25 price target, which is below the $38 Unity stock costs today. So what's an investor to make of that?

Morgan Stanley might have made a typo, and meant to value Unity stock higher. Alternatively, what Cost might be trying to say is that Unity would be a buy... at the right price. And that's a sentiment I agree with.

With $308 million in trailing free cash flow and a $15.8 billion market cap, Unity stock now trades at a steep 51 price-to-free-cash-flow ratio. This seems expensive to me given most analysts forecast the company will grow FCF only about 26% annually over the next five years. But if you cut the stock's price 35% or so, to about $25 a share, $10.4 billion, or 33.5 times FCF, the valuation looks more attractive.

At that price, I might even buy some myself.

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