EMERGING MARKETS-FX, stocks steady with US trade progress in focus; lira dips before rate decision

Reuters
2025/07/24
EMERGING MARKETS-FX, stocks steady with US trade progress in focus; lira dips before rate decision

U.S. nearing trade deal with EU, developments in focus

Interest rate decisions expected in Turkey, Ukraine

South African parliament passes last major budget bill

MSCI EM FX, stocks up 0.2% each

By Purvi Agarwal and Ankita Yadav

July 24 (Reuters) - Most emerging market currencies and stock indexes were little changed on Thursday, as investors awaited clarity on the state of U.S. trade negotiations, in the hopes that the highest of President Donald Trump's tariffs could be avoided.

European Union diplomats said on Wednesday that the U.S. was nearing a trade deal with Brussels, resulting in a broad 15% tariff on the bloc's exports to the U.S., a day after agreeing deals with Japan and smaller trading partners.

The optimism lifted global EM stocks on Wednesday, with MSCI's gauge .MSCIEF hitting a more-than-three-year high. The index was 0.2% higher on the day, trading around similar highs.

Most heavyweight Asian bourses gained, while regional indexes in Romania .BETI and Hungary .BUX added 0.2% each. South African stocks .JTOPI were down 0.1%.

"Markets were pricing in something since we had headlines about the deals earlier this week, so they are in mixed feelings about this," said Frantisek Taborsky, EMEA FX and fixed income strategist at ING.

"Even if we have positive headlines, we cannot expect some strong moves because we don't know if it's going to change the next day."

Investors have become immune to Trump's policy whiplash, showing resilience in the face of sweeping duties, but still face uncertainty over how these tariffs will be implemented.

Equities in Turkey .XU100 advanced 0.2%, ahead of a local monetary policy decision, where the central bank is expected to deliver a 250 basis point cut, to bring benchmark rates down to 43.5%, as per a Reuters poll of economists.

Taborsky said that despite slowing inflation, the situation for the central bank was not ideal and that the magnitude of the rate cut will signal the willingness of the bank to loosen monetary policy.

The Turkish lira TRYTOM=D3 was down 0.1%. Most other EM currencies also held steady, with MSCI's index .MIEM00000CUS up 0.2%.

South Africa's rand ZAR= was down 0.3%, after four sessions of gains. The country's parliament passed the last major budget bill late on Wednesday.

Emerging Europe currencies were largely subdued against the euro, with the most significant move being a 0.2% drop in the Hungarian forint EURHUF=.

Russia's rouble RUB= fell 0.8% against the dollar, over-the-counter market data showed. Peace talks with Ukraine did not result in a ceasefire or a possible meeting of their leaders.

Ukraine also awaited an interest rate decision.

Meanwhile, S&P affirmed Romania's investment-grade rating and also kept a "negative" outlook on the rating.

Elsewhere in EMs, Thailand's baht THB=TH fell slightly, while its stocks .SETI slipped 0.4%, as weeks of border tensions with Cambodia escalated into military clashes.

HIGHLIGHTS:

** India's private sector sees robust growth despite inflation and job concerns, PMI shows

** South Korea posts fastest economic growth since early 2024

For TOP NEWS across emerging markets nTOPEMRG

For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see CEE/

For TURKISH market report, see .IS

For RUSSIAN market report, see RU/RUB

(Reporting by Purvi Agarwal and Ankita Yadav in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore)

((Purvi.Agarwal@thomsonreuters.com;))

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