Dollar's dive offsets tariff sting for some US bellwethers

Reuters
07-22
UPDATE 3-Dollar's dive offsets tariff sting for some US bellwethers

Netflix, Pepsi raised FY guidance, citing weaker dollar

BlackRock saw positive impact of softer dollar on AUM

Investors cautious about FX-driven earnings beats

Adds Coca-Cola results in paragraph 6 and in table

By Shashwat Chauhan

July 22 (Reuters) - A slump in the dollar has come to the rescue of some major multinational U.S. companies this earnings season, easing the sting from President Donald Trump's tariffs that have driven up costs and upended financial planning.

A weaker dollar enhances the value of foreign earnings of U.S. companies, while also making American exports more competitive.

Companies such as Levi Strauss LEVI.N, Netflix NFLX.O, Pepsi PEP.O and 3M MMM.N, which generate significant revenue from overseas sales, reported a boost to their April-June earnings or raised their annual forecasts due to the slump in the dollar.

The greenback has lost =USD about 10% this year, due to rapidly changing U.S. trade policy and worries about growth and ballooning government debt.

Last week, PepsiCo, which relies on international business for about 40% of its total net revenue, forecast a smaller annual profit drop helped by a weaker dollar.

Rival Coca-Cola KO.N said on Tuesday its annual comparable earnings per share is expected to be near the top end of its target of a 2% to 3% rise, helped by a softer greenback.

"The whole point of Trump's plan is to try to get the dollar weaker in order to try to increase international sales for U.S. multinationals," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth.

"It's probably a good course of action to take and we'll continue to see that going forward especially if he gets his way as far as rates are concerned."

Based on two decades of data, every 1% depreciation in the dollar historically improves S&P 500 earnings per share growth by about 0.6 percentage points, according to LSEG data. Roughly 38% of S&P 500 revenue is derived from international markets.

Information technology .SPLRCT, consumer discretionary .SPLRCD, health care .SPXHC and industrial .SPLRCI companies have the highest international exposure.

"We originally expected over $100 million of headwinds from a strengthening dollar and the reverse has happened," medical equipment maker Edward Lifesciences EW.N CFO Scott Ullem said at a Jefferies conference on June 4.

TAILWIND NOT ENOUGH

Still, a forex tailwind is not always enough to reassure investors, who are looking out for signs of real growth as skittish consumers curb spending.

Investors typically do not reward FX-driven sales beats the way they reward constant-currency beats, Goldman Sachs strategists said in a note.

"In many ways, investors should consider some of these things as transitory or one-time adjustments that are not sustainable," said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Investment Management.

Netflix NFLX.O shares declined more than 4% on Friday as some investors were disappointed by a revenue forecast raise that was driven more by a weaker dollar than strong demand.

Here is a list of some the companies that noted a currency-related impact in their latest earnings:

Company

Ticker

Currency Impact

Additional Notes

3M

MMM.N

Positive impact from weaker USD

Q2 profit: $2.16/share vs. $2.01 estimate

BlackRock

BLK.N

Positive FX impact of $171.52 billion on AUM

Compared to $35.45B decline YoY

Garmin

GRMN.O

Positive benefit from FX shifts

Raised full-year revenue growth guidance to 15%

Omnicom

OMC.N

FX translations led to 1.1% revenue increase

Q2 revenue boost

Concentrix

CNXC.O

Expected ~140 bps positive FX impact for Q3

Compared to previous year

BNY

BK.N

Favorable FX impact contributed to 13% rise in assets under custody/admin

Driven by market values, inflows, and weaker USD

Danaher

<DHR.N>

Q2 sales stood at $5.94 billion, partly helped by weaker dollar

Largely in line with average expectation of $5.84 billion

Coca-Cola

<KO.N>

Expects annual comparable profit per share near top end of target

Sees a 2% to 3% rise, helped by softer dollar

Free falling https://reut.rs/3I2xY5D

(Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb Chakrabarty)

((Shashwat.Chauhan@thomsonreuters.com;))

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